The Art of Contrarian Trading

Renew：Part 10
Author：Carl Futia
Update：08-15-2023
Tags：Business Investing
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Chapter List

Chapter 16 contains a small number of very brief essays and notes I wrote for my own benefit as I learned to be a contrarian trader. It explains the development of the theory of contrary opinion, highlights the contributions key individuals made to the theory, discusses briefly several books every contrarian should read, and offers comments on back-of-the-envelope value investing for the contrarian trader.
Chapter 4 we saw that an information cascade begins when some investors decide that other investors know more about a particular investment opportunity than they do themselves. In such circ.u.mstances it can be rational for a person to imitate another"s actions even when his own private information and proclivities tug him in the opposite direction.
Chapter 5 I explained why the disintegration of a bullish investment crowd usually results in the birth of bearish one, and vice versa. The cycle of alternating bullish and bearish crowds is a universal feature of financial markets. This cycle of birth and death is responsible for the mistakes markets make-for prices being alternately too high and then too low relative to fair value.
Chapter 11).
Chapter 14. crowd at the time of its IPO. This was unprecedented in my experience and let me to take a very bullish stance on Google at the time. You can read the story of Google"s IPO in Chapter 14.
Chapter 6. You should also think about the types of investment strategies I describe in this chapter and choose one that suits the time you can devote to your investments. I have found that learning by doing is the most effective way to acquire the skills of a successful trader or investor. Making decisions when there is real money at stake is the essence of the experience and the only way to find out whether your emotional makeup is suitable to the contrarian approach to markets.
Chapter 5, I recommend that every contrarian trader read Bull! Bull! by Maggie Mahar. This book, published in 2004 by HarperCollins, does a fine job of recounting the history of the boom and bust from 1982 through 2002. by Maggie Mahar. This book, published in 2004 by HarperCollins, does a fine job of recounting the history of the boom and bust from 1982 through 2002.
Chapter 13 we saw that on January 2, 2001, the 200-day moving average of the S&P had dropped 1 percent from its bull market high. That day the S&P closed at 1,283 and the Contrarian Rebalancing strategy called for a reduction of stock market exposure to below-normal levels, this because all the signs of a bubble were evident near the 2000 top.
Chapter 5 in the book Five Eminent Contrarians Five Eminent Contrarians by Steven L. Mintz, which was published in 1994 by the Fraser Publishing Company of Burlington, Vermont. by Steven L. Mintz, which was published in 1994 by the Fraser Publishing Company of Burlington, Vermont.
Chapter 5 in Five Eminent Contrarians Five Eminent Contrarians) cited earlier in this chapter. As it happened, Neill and Angas had developed a friendship, and in the early 1950s Neill persuaded Angas to move to Neill"s hometown of Saxton"s River in Vermont.