"We shall interest ourselves first in the surroundings for thus, as we have said, habits of thought and feeling vary according to the epoch and the environment.
"A comparison will be established between persons or things, in order to be absolutely convinced of their degree of conformity.
"The state of mind in which we were when the previous events were manifested will be considered, and we shall not fail to ascertain plainly the similarity or change of humor at the moment as related to that of the past.
"It is also of importance to observe the state of health, for under the affliction of sickness things a.s.sume very easily a hostile aspect.
"It would be wrong to attribute to events judged during an illness the same value which is given to them at this present moment.
"When one is absolutely decided as to the relation of new perceptions and mental representations, one can calculate exactly the degree of comparison.
"The moment will then have arrived to synthesize all the observations and to draw from them the following deductions:
"First, like causes ought, all things being equal, to produce like effects.
"Secondly, the event which is in question will therefore have the same consequences as the previous one, since it is presented under the same conditions.
"Or again:
"Being granted the principle that like causes produce like effects, as I have just affirmed, and that there exist certain incompatibilities between the contingencies of the past and those of to-day, one must allow that these incompatibilities will produce different results.
"And, after this reasoning, the deductions will be established by const.i.tuting a comparison in favor of either the present or past state of things."
But the philosopher, who thinks of everything, has foreseen the case where false ideas have obscured the clearness of the deductions, and he said to us:
"The a.s.sociation of false ideas, if it does not proceed from the difficulty of controlling things, is always in ungovernable opposition to the veracity of the deduction.
"What would be thought of a man of eighty years who, coming back to his country after a long absence, said, on seeing the family roof from a distance:
""When I was twenty years old, in leaving here, it took me twenty minutes to reach the home of my parents, so I shall reach the threshold in twenty minutes."
"The facts would be exact in principle.
"The distance to be covered would be the same; but legs of eighty years have not the same agility as those of very young people, and in predicting that he will reach the end of his walk in the same number of minutes as he did in the past, the old man would deceive himself most surely.
"If, on the contrary, on reaching the same place he perceived that a new route had been made, and that instead of a roundabout way of approach, as in the past, the house was now in a straight line from the point where he was looking at it, it would be possible to estimate approximately the number of minutes which he could gain on the time employed in the past, by calculating the delay imposed upon him by his age and his infirmities.
"Those to whom deduction is familiar, at times astonish thoughtless persons by the soundness of their judgment.
"A prince drove to his home in the country in a sumptuous equipage.
"He was preceded by a herald and borne in a palanquin by four servants, who were replaced by others at the first signs of fatigue, in order that the speed of the journey should never be slackened.
"As they were mounting, with great difficulty, a zigzag road which led up along the side of a hill, one of these men cried out:
""Stop," said he, "in the name of Buddha, stop!"
"The prince leaned out from the palanquin to ask the cause of this exclamation:
""My lord," cried the man, "if you care to live, tell your porters to stop!"
"The great man shrugged his shoulders and turning toward his master of ceremonies, who was riding at his side, said:
""See what that man wants."
"But scarcely had the officer allowed his horse to take a few steps in the direction of the man who had given warning when the palanquin, with the prince and his bearers, rolled down a precipice, opened by the sinking in of the earth.
"They raised them all up very much hurt, and the first action of the prince, who was injured, was to have arrested the one who, according to him, had evoked an evil fate.
"He was led, then and there, to the nearest village and put into a cell.
"The poor man protested.
""I have only done what was natural," said he. "I am going to explain it, but I pray you let me see the prince; I shall not be able to justify myself when he is ill with fever."
""What do you mean," they replied, "do you prophesy that the prince will have a fever?"
""He is going to have it."
""You see, you are a sorcerer," said the jailer, "you make predictions."
"And then he shut him in prison, to go away and to relate his conversation to them all.
"During this time, they called in a healer who stated that the wounds of the great n.o.bleman were not mortal in themselves, but that the fever which had declared itself could become dangerous.
"He was cured after long months.
"During this time the poor man languished in his prison, from whence he was only taken to appear before the judges.
"Accused of sorcery and of using black magic, he explained very simply that he had foreseen the danger, because in raising his eyes he had noticed that the part of the ground over which the herald had pa.s.sed was sinking, and that he had drawn the following conclusions:
"The earth seemed to have only a medium thickness.
"Under the feet of the herald he had seen it crumble and fall in.
"He had deduced from this that a weight five times as heavy added to that of the palanquin, would not fail to produce a landslide.
"As to the prediction concerning the fever, it was based on what he had seen when in the war.
"He had then observed that every wound is always followed by a disposition to fever; he therefore could not fail to deduce that the serious contusions occasioned by the fall of the prince would produce the inevitable consequences.
"The judge was very much imprest with the perspicacity of this man; not only did he give him his liberty, but he engaged him in his personal service and in due time enabled him to make his fortune."
We do not wish to affirm--any more than Yoritomo, for that matter--that fortunate deductions are always so magnificently rewarded as were those of this man.
However, without the causes being so striking, many people have owed their fortune to the faculty which they possest of deducing results where the a.n.a.logy of the past circ.u.mstances suggested to them what would happen.
He warns us against the propensity which we have of too easily avoiding a conclusion which does not accord with our desires.