4. The mean increase of the post-nati for the next thirty years will therefore be 450000/30, annually, or 15,000.
5. If one half of these be males, who are still to remain slaves, there will in the first sixteen years, be born 120,000.
6. After the first sixteen years, the post-nati females will begin to breed; the proportion of males born to slavery in the next twelve years may be estimated at one-fourth of the whole number born after the commencement of that period. Their number will be 52,000.
7. The number of _slaves_ living in Virginia at the end of _thirty_ years from the adoption of the plan, will be, ante-nati (prop. 3.) 150,000
Post-nati males born in the first 16 years, 120,000
Post-nati males born in the last 12 years, 52,500
---- 322,500.
8. The number of _negroes_ at the same time will stand thus:
Slaves, 322,500
Post-nati free born, 277,500
---- 600,000.
9. After twenty-eight years from the first adoption, this plan of gradual emanc.i.p.ation will first begin to manifest its effects, by the complete emanc.i.p.ation of one twenty-eighth part of the post-nati free born during that period each succeeding year, for twenty-eight years more; their numbers will be, 277500/28, or 9,910.
These will be all females.
10. It being admitted that the negroes double every thirty years, the supposition that in forty-five years, their numbers will be half as many more as in thirty, will not be very erroneous, if so, the whole race of them at that period will be 900,000.
11. Their numbers will stand thus:
Ante-nati, 60,000
Post-nati, 840,000
---- 900,000.
12. After twenty-eight years are past, the number of slaves born must continually diminish. Suppose their number born in the last 17 years, to be one-fourth as many as those born in the preceding twelve years, they will be 52500/4, or 13,125.
13. The slaves in Virginia in forty-five years will then be, ante-nati, 60,000
Post-nati males born in the first sixteen years, 120,000
Ditto, born in the next twelve years 52,500
Ditto, born in the last seventeen years, 13,125
---- 245,625.
At this period the emanc.i.p.ation of males will begin.
14. But after twenty eight years it has been shewn that 9,910 negroes will annually arrive at the age of emanc.i.p.ation, their whole number in forty-five years will be 168,470.
15. The state of the negroes at the end of 45 years, will then be, slaves, 245,625
Post-nati fully emanc.i.p.ated (females), 168,470
Post-nati not emanc.i.p.ated, 485,905
---- 900,000.
16. In sixty years the whole number of negroes will be
1,200,000.
17. At that period the whole of the present race will be extinct; and we may also infer that one half of those born in the first thirty years will be also extinct; the number of slaves born in that period has been shewn, (prop. 7.) to be 172,500, the number of these then living will be 172,500/2, or 86,250.
18. One half of the post-nati free born, during that period, being now fully emanc.i.p.ated, may be likewise presumed to be extinct; their numbers (prop. 8.) will be, 277,500/2, or 138,750.
19. The state of the negroes at the end of sixty years, will therefore be:
Slaves born during the first thirty years, 86,250
Ditto born after that period, 13,125
Post-nati fully emanc.i.p.ated, 138,750
Post-nati under 28 years of age, 961,875
---- 1,200,000.
20. At the end of ninety years the number of negroes will be
2,400,000
21. Of this number, those only born after the first thirty years, being supposed to be living, the number of slaves (prop. 12) will then be reduced to 13,125.
22. And as the last mentioned number of slaves are supposed to be born within forty-five years, their whole number will be extinct in fifteen years more, that is, in _one hundred =and= five_ years from the first adoption of the plan.
23. By prop. 19. it appears, that out of 1,200,000 negroes, there will then be 961,875 under the age of twenty-eight years, the period of emanc.i.p.ation.
24. We may therefore conclude, that from _two-thirds_ to _three-fourths_ of the whole number of blacks will _always_ be liable to service.]
I am not vain enough to presume the plan I have suggested entirely free from objection; nor that in offering my own ideas on the subject, I have been more fortunate than others: but from the communication of sentiment between those who lament the evil, it is possible that an effectual remedy may at length be discovered. Whenever that happens the golden age of our country will begin. Till then,
----_Non hospes ab hospite tutus,
Non Herus a Famulie: fratrum quoque gratia rara._
THE END.