Some of those allies, particularly in Europe, were concerned about the potential for confrontation. In stark contrast, America"s allies in Asia, particularly Taiwan and South Korea, viewed such straightforward defense posturing with relief, and a sense of bridled optimism.
In Red China, President Jien Zenim prepared for his meeting with the new US President which was scheduled for late April, after his joint announcement with India on their economic alliance. He intended, in no uncertain terms, to leverage that announcement to let the American President know that the era of US hegemony in the Western Pacific was drawing to a close. He hoped that the two nations could work together to ensure that the transition to the new "reality" in the region was conducted in as smooth and non-belligerent a way as possible.
During this same period, the Chinese shipyard production crew chief, Sung Hsu, having successfully answered all of General Hunbaio"s security personnel"s questions, was transferred to the COSCO shipyards where the military modifications for the Container and RORO ships were taking place under the tightest of security. Sung was introduced to these three "new" modules and immediately a.s.signed to be a production crew chief. His specific responsibilities became the installation of new LRASD (Long Range Anti-Shipping Device) systems on the decks of the Tactical Attack ships and the Amphibious a.s.sault ships. As these systems were newly tested and now deemed production worthy, Sung Hsu was required to work very closely with those who designed the systems to develop comprehensive manufacturing training materiel. This would allow the conversion process to be implemented in a "ma.s.s production" environment at several Chinese shipyards simultaneously. In order to accomplish this, Sung attended meetings to develop the strategies and materiel necessary to implement the training. The LRASD planning session was led by Lu Pham, the Vietnamese scientist, who would later be credited with the most revolutionary development in naval warfare in more than a century.
March 25, 2005 19:35 local time Over the South China Sea Colonel "Mac" Mendenhall studied the multifunction display (MFD) immediately in front of him. He was approaching the coast of Red China from the northeast of Taiwan. His navigation or "way " points were all programmed for a run down the Chinese coast, pa.s.sing just to the east of Hainan Island. From there, he would turn away from the coast towards the interior of the South China Sea where his aircraft would begin the long journey back to Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada. As the airspeed indicator pa.s.sed into the Mach 4 range, and his alt.i.tude cleared 100,000 feet, he addressed his electronics defense and surveillance officer (EDSO).
"Ok, Larry, we"re cleared for the ingress. We"ll be hugging the coast and getting our "view" of those installations. On my mark, we"ll be positioned and you can commence your run...three, two, one...MARK!"
With that, Captain Larry Jenkins activated his surveillance package, which would be looking directly into Red Chinese territory at several of their air bases using light, radio and other electronic wavelengths and bands.
The SR-77 "Pervador" (or "Aurora" as it was mislabeled by many in the public) was a flying wonder. It was the replacement for the aging, but by most nations" standards, still very "s.p.a.ce age" SR-71 "Blackbird" that the United States National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) had retired nine years earlier.
This aircraft could cruise at Mach 4 at very high alt.i.tude and was designed with the radar cross-section of a sparrow, employing radar-absorbing material directly into its surfaces.
The aircraft employed every sensor imaginable, from devices which would pick up any telltale signs of radioactivity, to devices which would detect and categorize any radar emissions, or any conceivable light wave length, and all VHF and UHF communications, whether clear air broadcasts or simple "leakage"
into the atmosphere. It also had the most sensitive encryption software and hardware available on the planet, and could communicate real time with satellite relay stations and devices on the ground, or in s.p.a.ce. At full speed, it could outrun almost any anti-aircraft guided missile, though in its eight years of active service, none had ever been fired at it.
For potential use against those nations developing detection and missiles defense capabilities which could reach the SR-77 (and Red China was one such nation), the aircraft could also be coupled with the HR-7 "Thunder Dart" hypersonic reconnaissance aircraft.
The HR-7 could be carried "piggy back" by the SR-77 and then launched at a standoff distance. It could also launch on its own from a suitable airfield. The single seat HR-7 carried a similar surveillance package, but would use its turbojet engines to achieve a speed at which its new technology Pulse Detonation Wave Engines (PDWE) could be activated.
Those engines would then boost the aircraft to Mach 7+ and an alt.i.tude approaching 200,000 ft. Its endurance was more limited, but the HR-7 could, by virtue of its speed and operating alt.i.tude, circ.u.mvent even the most heavily and technologically advanced defenses, allowing those installations that they defended to be a.n.a.lyzed.
On this mission, the additional defensive capability was not deemed necessary to take a good look at all six airfields. As a result, this SR-77 had been sent aloft, without its HR-7 companion craft to conduct this mission. Captain Jenkins had just activated a special package of sensors to complete that mission at the first of the suspected airfields Tom Lawton had discovered from the satellite images a couple of months earlier.
Nine minutes later, and 450 miles down the coast, Larry noticed a red indicator on his defense MFD, just as he heard the warning tone in his headset.
"Mac, I"ve got an "S" band air search radar painting us from 45 degrees off our nose. Range about 80 miles. It"s coming from the target airfield just to the north and east of Hong Kong. They haven"t made us...but once that operator notices that those intermittent "sparrow" size images are moving across his scope at about mach 4, I bet he sits up and takes notice."
"Do you think there"s any chance they"ll get a lock on us?" Mac asked.
"Very doubtful. Although latest intelligence reports indicate that with new software upgrades, and other refinements they developed over the last couple of years, they"ll be close soon. Still, I don"t know what they have that can shoot at us even if they do get a lock," Larry replied.
After thinking this over for a minute, and checking his course relative to the people he now knew were looking for him, Mac said, "Well, you can bet they are working on it. They won"t improve their acquisition and targeting without also improving their weapons. Just keep me informed. We"ll be past those folks in a minute, and we need another eight minutes to get that last airfield on Hainan Island covered."
Five minutes later, and still some 150 miles from Hainan Island, Larry said, "Okay, someone"s been talking. We are now getting multiple radar, multiple bands all down the coast. There"s a "Top Plate"
signature 30 miles off the coast of Hainan Island too. Looks like one of their new Haizhou cla.s.s destroyers out there."
Hurriedly checking their course relative to these new threats, Colonel Mendenhall quickly saw what he needed to do to complete his mission, while protecting his ultra secret and sophisticated national a.s.set.
"d.a.m.n! It looks like he"s sitting within about eight miles of our flight path, and we"ll be there in about two-and-a-half minutes. No way we can fly that close. That KS-2 derivative AAW system they installed on their DDG"s has a 42 km range with a ceiling of 25,000 meters and that"s just too close."
"I"m adjusting our approach and putting us about 30 miles off that ship. You"ll still get a good look at Hainan, but not as good as we planned. If you need to make adjustments, do it now. I"m plugging the new course in on my mark...mark."
With that, Larry quickly studied the information on his MFD, made some quick calculations to determine the optimum settings for his equipment, given the new parameters. Then, as he was keying it in, he replied to his flight commander, "Wilco Mac. I"ll just crank up the "gain" on a couple of these packages and we"ll be ready to go. About ten seconds, no biggie."
March 25, 2005, same time 48 kilometers off Hainan Island On Board PLAN 136 Haizhou Captain Xinhua Zukang, the commanding officer (CO) of the PLAN 136 Haizhou, one of his nation"s most sophisticated warships, watched his defense operations officer retrieve the latest information on the fast approaching, unidentified aircraft.
"Lieutenant, there is no doubt, what we have approaching is an American surveillance aircraft, and not the slow, lumbering EP-3 aircraft which we have seen so often in the past. No, this is not like the one our national hero, w.a.n.g Wei, forced to land five years ago. This is their best. We can tell more about this aircraft by what we cannot find out about it, than if the Americans had contacted us and told us it was coming. It is clearly one of their high-speed, high-alt.i.tude, stealthy, "NRO" surveillance aircraft. Be sure to record everything you can about it, and attempt to lock onto it with every piece of acquisition and targeting equipment we have on this ship."
The Lieutenant, who had been in contact with other radar sites along the coast, including the airfield outside of Hong Kong which had initially discovered the target, understood the gravity of his Captain"s words. The "Top Plate" radar was of the latest Russian design. Although the "target" had not come within its range, it was capable of taking feeds from other systems and selecting targets and firing at them, as if though its own radar had acquired them.
All of the information feeding into his computer system was now indicating that the "Unknown" was approaching at something just in excess of Mach 4 and was flying at about 30,000 meters and was still some 160 km distant. Clearly, what the Captain said was true...irrespective of the intermittent nature of the contact...the Americans had significantly raised the stakes by employing their best surveillance aircraft on a mission over his homeland.
"Captain, the approaching target has just entered our acquisition range at 100 km, but has adjusted its course and will pa.s.s some 45 kilometers to the east and south of us at an alt.i.tude of 30,000 meters."
"Very well," Captain Xinhua said. "Keep trying to acquire the target as it pa.s.ses. The only thing that I would like more than acquiring that American aircraft with our radar and locking on to him, would be to have a weapon that could reach him and bring him down."
"What I wouldn"t give for a battery of those new KS-2+ land based anti-air missiles that I have heard rumors of! Just the same, we are going to be privileged to gather a wealth of information on one of our princ.i.p.al adversary"s most sophisticated aircraft. Information our researchers and developers will put to good use."
March 25, 2005 19:50 local time 80 kilometers south and east of Hainan Island, PRC "Alright! We are now egressing the area. What kind of look did you get, Larry?" Mac asked as he completed the turn that would take them away from the coast of Red China and out to sea.
After directing his system to encrypt and send, Larry responded, "Looked good. Would have been nice to be closer, but I am afraid that Haizhou got about as good a "look" at us as anyone ever has. I tell you, every piece of equipment they had was trained on us trying to lock on to us...but, they got a definite "no joy" on that. Just the same, I don"t relish getting that close to another belligerent if we can avoid it. By the way, the entire "package" has already been encrypted and sent on its way."
March 27, 2005, 17:00 local time Tianjin Shipyards, Secure Training Facility "Therefore, comrades, these conversions must be completed in a minimum of time once the modular components are manufactured, and once the processes are defined and in place."
Turning to the presentation screen, where the slides for the presentation were being presented, General Hunbaio continued.
"Just to reiterate, please direct your attention to the next slide on the screen which summarizes the conversion schedule goals for each conversion type."
PLAN Training Status: Top Secret GOALS FOR.
TIMELY.
MODULAR.
CONVERSION.
SHIP TYPE FROM STD.
VESSEL.
TIME.
Tactical Attack Container Ship 6 weeks Amphibious a.s.sault RORO Ship 8 weeks Sea Control Carrier Container Ship 10 weeks Tianjin Facilities General Hunbaio "I cannot emphasize enough how critical these goals are for your successful fulfillment of the high responsibility your nation has placed upon each of you as foreman and crew leaders. In addition, our motherland and our ability to secure our national security will depend on your success."
"Remember, you will be spread out over 12 different shipyard facilities. Confidentiality will be an absolute requirement. Our most vital and most advanced national security a.s.sets will help maintain security. We will commence within the next three to four months. At that time, we will begin work on three Sea Control Carriers, five Amphibious a.s.sault Ships and four Tactical Attack ships. It is our intent to commission the Sea Control Carriers in the late September time frame, and discreetly deploy the others into their intended area of operations."
General Hunbaio, about to complete his introductory presentation, paused as he looked across the audience. It was made up of over 120 crew chiefs and foreman, numerous COSCO and COSTIND executives and many military.
"We will now have the lead weapons engineers from each system present to you the basic requirements and specifications for installing and supporting their various systems. These presentations are expected to require the next four full days, during which you will need to direct you utmost attention to them. We will cover everything from the Vertical Launch Systems (VLS), to the Close in Weapons Systems (CIWS), to aircraft, guns, and, most importantly, the LRASD and Ballistic Missile requirements. The basic location of each weapons system is provided in the plan and profile view of each ship which accompany your handouts. For convenience, I will now display them on the screen."
"Please review these layouts and familiarize yourselves with them and the location of the various components relative to your own areas of responsibility. You will be referring to them often over the next four days, and then for the following ten days, as you develop operational plans and procedures."
"Unless there are questions, we will take a fifteen minute break before starting the presentations on the LRASD by Commodore Lu Pham."
Before the General could leave the podium, he noticed a hand raised in the audience. Apparently there was at least one question. Thinking that this individual was a hardy and brave soul, the General recognized him and said "Yes, Comrade. Please stand up. Utilize the microphone at the end of your aisle.
State your name and function, and ask your question."
With that, a relatively young man stood up, picked up the microphone and spoke.
"General Hunbaio, thank you very kindly for recognizing me. My name is Sung Hsu, I am a modularity crew chief for COSCO from our Shanghai facilities. Here is my question."
"Clearly these modules are for warships for our Navy. I am concerned regarding the overall hull integrity for combat operations, and the decidedly smaller number of watertight bulkheads and compartment hatches as compared to military specifications. Is there a retrofit planned in that regard?"
As Sung sat down, the General thought, Here is a young man unafraid to ask the difficult questions which most of the crew chiefs avoided. The General responded. "An excellent observation and question. The answer is no. We will be able to produce these vessels, and modernize them, well within the cycle time of any adversary"s response, and quickly enough to make up for any shortfalls."
"Are there other questions? If not, we will reconvene in fifteen minutes."
March 28, 2005, 19:00 local time Tianjin Shipyards, Secure Training Facility "Concluding, we have reviewed the structural requirements based on both the static and dynamic loading for this system. We have reviewed the rotation requirements for bringing the weapons to bear, and we have reviewed the access requirements for reloading and maintaining all components of the systems."
"Again, I cannot impress on you enough the need for absolute secrecy regarding this. You will all be living, from this moment on, in the most strict of security environments. The very success of our efforts to secure vital national interests will depend on your ability to ensure that this security is maintained both collectively and individually. Failure in this regard will not be tolerated. Success will establish you all as heroes for our cause."
Recently promoted Commodore Lu Pham looked out over his audience. He would never have imagined the realization of his dreams, or the magnitude to which it was being employed...yet here was living proof before his eyes. He found it difficult to believe that he was managing over 150 scientists, engineers and military planners in the design, test and deployment of these weapons. But he took great contentment in the realization that soon, as a result of his doing, America would reap the gruesome harvest of what they had sown. As he contemplated this, he committed it to the memory of his long-dead father and mother.
With hundreds of very qualified manufacturing personnel, like the young Sung Hsu whom he had just met, he could now ensure the deployment of these revolutionary devices on the necessary vessels, thereby satisfying the needs of the People"s Republic of China-and his own.
Having reflected on all of this, he concluded. "This ends our presentation and discussion of requirements for these systems. In a few days, we will begin the ten days of detailed planning and procedure development, which will produce the final manufacturing plans for the modular conversions requiring this system. Thank you. You have been a most attentive and respectful audience."
April 4, 2005, 13:00 Cla.s.sified Briefing Room, The Pentagon John Bowers looked around the room and mentally surveyed the partic.i.p.ants in this meeting. As the newly appointed National Security Advisor to President Norm Weisskopf, Bowers would be chairing this meeting. He thought briefly of the family farm back in Kansas and the cornfields his father and brothers were tending as he sat here. It was to protect those cornfields and the many people like his parents and brothers and their families that meetings like this were necessary.
John Bowers had elected to leave the family farm. He had answered an internal call to serve his country, and for the last twenty-three years he had been doing so in roles of increasing responsibility. He had served well as a Captain in the 1stBrigade of the US Army"s 3rdArmored Division during Desert Storm, commanding a platoon of Abrams tanks. His command had been one of the princ.i.p.al units to take on, and literally slaughter, an Iraqi armored division on February 28thand 29th, 1991 in the Iraqi desert near Kuwait.
The resulting medals, and the ceremonies a.s.sociated with them, had led to his first direct contact with the "General." A close relationship had developed, and now spanned the fifteen intervening years. After retiring as a full colonel five years later, John had been called back to "duty" twice.
The first time was to serve during Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003, where he had served as an advisor to the commander of the 4thInfantry Division. That division had planned to a.s.sault Iraq from the North, while the 1stMarine Expeditionary and U.S. Army 3rdInfantry Division invaded from the south. Due to the inability to secure entry and staging rights in Turkey, the 4thInfantry Division had ultimately transited the Mediterranean Sea, through the Suez Ca.n.a.l and entered Iraq by way of the Persian Gulf and Kuwait, several weeks behind the Marines and the 3rdInfantry Division. They had come along just in time to relieve the 3rdInfantry Division and in time to essentially mop-up after the quick and decisive victory of their comrades. A few fire fights and a lot of patrolling and maintaining of order had ensued, but ultimately, after a few months, John was released and returned home to his family.
He once again went into retirement from military service, but John Bowers service to his nation was not over. General Weisskopf himself, now President Weisskopf, had made the next call. He simply and directly asked John Bowers to serve as his National Security Advisor and to help him ensure that American interests were not only protected, but clearly articulated throughout an increasingly threatening world, particularly in the Western Pacific.
So, here he was, surveying the attendees of a meeting, which would prepare a presentation to the President of the United States and the Joint Chiefs the following day. The a.s.sembled group included Tom Lawton and Bill Hendrickson from the NRO, Captain Toby "Skip" Pendleton from US Navy Intelligence, Major Tim Lawrence from the US Air Force, and Susan Theigold from the US State Department.
"Okay, let"s get this show on the road, shall we? It is my understanding that the photographs and data from the over-flight have been a.n.a.lyzed by everyone here and that preliminary notes, concerns and projections from that a.n.a.lysis by the NRO, the Navy and the Air Force have been copied to and reviewed by you all. Is that correct?"
John looked around the room, receiving either a nod or a simple "Yes" or "That"s correct" from everyone there.
"Alright then, that"s excellent. Let"s go ahead and start with the NRO and proceed from there right around the table, having the Navy, the Air Force and the State Department make their statements in turn.
Please try to keep each of your opening comments to 35 minutes. We"ll have plenty of time for detailed interaction after we hear from each of you. We"ll wrap up the meeting with an hour-long session of developing final thoughts as to the meaning and ramifications of this info and what we believe we should do about it, beginning at 3:30 p.m. Bill, will you or Tom please begin?"
Bill nodded to Tom and indicated, according to their prior decision, for Tom to "take point" in this discussion.
"Okay, Mr. Bowers, I will be presenting our thoughts on the over-flight. As you all know, on March 25thlocal time, March 24thhere, we conducted and over-flight in international airs.p.a.ce off the coast of Southern China. Our aim was to take a hard look at six airfields where our satellite a.s.sets had shown us pictures of what appeared to be the PLAN training large numbers of naval aircraft.
"Two things were intriguing: first, the number of apparent airfields being used for this activity, and second, the configuration of the airfield facilities so employed.
"Simply stated, in terms of SIGINT and visible data, our over-flight absolutely confirmed the existence of these facilities and the way in which they are being employed. The data also indicates that the Red Chinese are indeed training between six and eight mixed carrier wings consisting of fighter, strike and even what appears to be a new "Airborne Early Warning" (AEW) aircraft in addition to the two wings they are training near Shanghai. Also, it is clear that they are training these air wings with a deck configuration that is not similar to the layout of the two carriers they are building in Shanghai. We will save our thoughts on ramifications and on reasoning for later in the meeting."
As he sat down, Bill Hendrickson quickly interjected, "I would like to add here what Tom is too modest to let you know: that is, that it was his own a.n.a.lysis that led to the discovery of the installations which led to the over-flight itself. Our a.n.a.lysis, particularly after the mission, indicates many more air wings being trained than conceivably necessary for the carriers the Chinese are building."
As Bill sat down, John looked directly at Tom while stating, "Okay, okay. Thanks very much to our friends from the NRO. Tom, you did a fine job in ferreting this out. Oh, by the way, I would like the two of you, Bill and Tom, to be in attendance at the meeting tomorrow for backup when we discuss all of this."
Then, looking over to Toby Pendleton, John continued. "So, without further pause, let"s continue. Please Toby, what are the US Navy"s thoughts on the data?"
For the next three hours, the Navy, the Air Force and the State Department first made their initial statements, which to one degree or another basically concurred with the NRO, and then discussed the issues in detail. The fallout of the entire discussion was simply that: The Red Chinese were training a lot more Naval Air capability than would be indicated by the capacity of the carriers they were building.
The configuration of the training facilities targeted by this surveillance was strange, and not understood, as it represented a somewhat shorter deck in an "X" configuration, as opposed to the longer and more traditional angled configuration building on the new carriers in Shanghai.
The only possible conclusions, given the investment in the unexplained efforts, were that the Chinese were planning on building additional carriers, without divulging any indication to that effect.
The recommendation was to conduct further surveillance, to consider bringing up the question through diplomatic channels and to consider using human intelligence (HUMINT) a.s.sets within Red China to determine what was "afoot," though Ms. Theigold from State strongly disagreed with actively employing HUMINT on the ground in Red China.
"I believe this is a good summary, and I concur with both the conclusions and recommendations. Folks, we are playing a cat and mouse game that is every bit as critical as any of those played during the "cold war" with the Soviet Union-perhaps more so. I believe it critical that we understand what is going on with these developments. Given what we know of the Red Chinese ambitions in Asia, I will not be surprised if your involvement with this, and the ramifications that evolve from it, do not eventually come to require prolonged, full-time commitment.
"Bill and Tom, the meeting is scheduled for 3 p.m. tomorrow afternoon in the situation room at the White House. Let"s meet at my offices at 2:30 and go over together."
With these comments by John Bowers, the preparation meeting for the next day"s briefing was concluded.
April 5, 2005, 15:35 Situation Room, The White House President Norm Weisskopf had "that" feeling. He had experienced similar feelings from time to time throughout his life and military career. One had occurred several days before the Iraqis had attacked and taken the small Saudi town of Khafji during Operation Desert Storm in 1991. Because he trusted such feelings, and had issued practical general orders accordingly, the US Marine and Saudi forces in the area, although initially surprised, had quickly taken the town back and driven the Iraqis off. The result had been, as he stated at the time, "about as significant as a flea on an elephant"s b.u.t.t."
A more recent occurrence had been just a few months earlier, when an almost overpowering feeling had caused him to come out of retirement and unexpectedly run for the Presidency.
Norm the "Storm" Weisskopf had learned to trust such feelings over the years, and he was having an unusually uneasy one now concerning the information regarding the Chinese naval air training.
"Okay gentlemen, from your presentation and our discussions, it is clear to me that the Red Chinese are significantly building up their naval air in a way we do not understand. I want to understand it."
"So, I would like to ask the following four questions. Mitch, what does the CIA have in terms of options on the ground in China? General Stone, what more can we find out through the use of our strategic surveillance a.s.sets? Admiral Crowler, what is the Navy"s a.s.sessment of the possibility of the Red Chinese deploying more carriers than we are aware of? And finally, number four, Fred, what can we do diplomatically? Should I raise this issue with Jien Zenim in my meetings with him later this month?
"We have less than an hour gentlemen. Let"s hear your responses."
With that, the President sat back and let the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) and his Secretary of State take the floor in turn.
"Mr. President," began Mitch Foley, the Director of Central Intelligence, "ever since the intelligence fiascoes of the late eighties, and additionally those of the nineties, particularly as regards the Red Chinese, we have been building our a.s.sets in this regard. We have highly-placed operatives in their industry and within the PLA. Our penetration of their Navy and strategic missile forces is somewhat less impressive, as is our penetration of their Political Apparatus, although we do have a couple of people close to two of their junior politburo members.