So let"s have a few free-swinging predictions about the future.
Some will be wrong-but cautious predictions are sure to be wrong.
1. 1950 Interplanetary travel is waiting at your front door-C.O.D. It"s yours when you pay for it.
1965 And now we are paying for it and the cost is high. But, for reasons understandable only to bureaucrats, we have almost halted development of a nu clear-powered s.p.a.cecraft when success was in sight. Never mind; if we don"t another country will. By the end of this century s.p.a.ce travel will be cheap.
1980 And now the Apollo-Saturn Man-on-the-Moon program has come and gone, and all we have now in the U.S.A. as a new man-in-s.p.a.ce program is the s.p.a.ce Shuttle-underfinanced and two years behind schedule. See my article SPINOFF on page 500 of this book, especially the last two pages.
Is s.p.a.ce travel dead?No, because the United States is not the only nation on this planet. Today both j.a.pan and Germany seem to be good bets-countries aware that endless wealth is out there for the taking.
USSR seems to be concentrating on the military aspects rather than on s.p.a.ce travel, and the People"s Republic of China does not as yet appear to have the means to spare-but don"t count out either nation; the potential is there, in both cases.
And don"t count out the United States! Today most of our citizens regard the s.p.a.ce program as a boondoggle (totally unaware that it is one of the very few Federal programs that paid for themselves, manyfold). But we are talking about twenty years from now, 2000 AD. Let"s see it in perspective.
Exactly thirty years ago George Pal and Irving Pichel and I-and ca. 200 others-were making the motion picture DESTINATION MOON. I remember sharply that most of the people working on that film started out thinking that it was a silly fantasy, an impossibility. I had my nose rubbed in it again and again, especially if the speaker was unaware that I had written it. (Correction: written the first version of it. By the time it was filmed, even the banker"s wife was writing dialog.) As for the general public- A trip to the Moon? Nonsense!
That was thirty years ago, late 1949.
Nineteen years and ten months later Apollo 11 landed on the Moon.
Look again at the curves on page 322. With respect to s.p.a.ce travel (and industry, power, and colonization) we have dropped to that feeble curve #1-but we could shift back to curve #4 overnight if our President and/or Congress got it through their heads that not one but all of our crisis problems can be solved by exploiting s.p.a.ce. Employment, inflation, pollution, population, energy, running out of nonrenewable resources- there is pie in the sky for the U.S.A. and for the entire planet including the impoverished "Third World."
I won"t try to prove it here. See THE THIRD INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION by G. Harry Stine, 1979, Ace Books, 51 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10010, and see A STEP FARTHER OUT by Dr. Jerry Pournelle, also Ace Books 1979-and accept my a.s.surance that I have known both authors well for twenty-odd years, know that each has years of experience in aeros.p.a.ce, and that each has both the formal education and the continuing study-and the horse sense!-to be true experts in this matter.
From almost total disbelief about s.p.a.ce travel (99.9% +)to a landing on the Moon in twenty years from President Kennedy"s announcement of intention to that Lunar landing in only seven years . . . and still twenty years to go until the year 2000-we can still shift to curve #4 (and get rich) almost overnight.
By 2000 A.D. we could have O"Neill colonies, self-supporting and exporting power to Earth, at both Lagrange-4 and Lagrange-5, transfer stations in orbit about Earth and around Luna, a permanent base on Luna equipped with an electric catapult-and a geriatrics retirement home.
However, I am not commissioned to predict what we could do but to predict (guess) what is most likely to happen by 2000 A.D.
Our national loss of nerve, our escalating anti-intellectualism, our almost total disinterest in anything that does not directly and immediately profit us, the shambles of public education throughout most of our nation (especially in New York and California) cause me to predict that our s.p.a.ce program will continue to dwindle. It would not surprise me (but would distress me mightily!) to see the s.p.a.ce Shuttle canceled.
In the meantime some other nation or group will start exploiting s.p.a.ce-industry, power, perhaps Lagrange-point colonies-and suddenly we will wake up to the fact that we have been left at the post.
That happened to us in "57; we came up from behind and pa.s.sed the compet.i.tion. Possibly we will do it again. Possibly- But I am making no cash bets.
2. 1950 Contraception and control of disease is revising relations between the s.e.xes to an extent that will change our entire social and economic structure.
1965 This trend is so much more evident now than it was fifteen years ago that I am tempted to call it a fulfilled prophecy. Vast changes in s.e.x relations are evident all around us-with the oldsters calling it "moral decay" and the youngsters ignoring them and taking it for granted. Surface signs: books such as s.e.x and the Single Girl are smash hits; the formerlytaboo four-letter words are now seen both in novels and popular magazines; the neologism "swinger" has come into the language; courts are conceding that nudity and semi-nudity are now parts of the cultural mores. But the end is not yet; this revolution will go much farther and is now barely started.
The most difficult speculation for a science fiction writer to undertake is to imagine correctly the secondary implications of a new factor. Many people correctly antic.i.p.ated the coming of the horseless carriage; some were bold enough to predict that everyone would use them and the horse would virtually disappear. But I know of no writer, fiction or nonfiction, who saw ahead of time the vast change in the courting and mating habits of Americans which would result primarily from the automobile-a change which the diaphragm and the oral contraceptive merely con- firmed. So far as I know, no one even dreamed of the change in s.e.x habits the automobile would set off.
There is some new gadget in existence today which will prove to be equally revolutionary in some other way equally unexpected. You and I both know of this gadget, by name and by function-but we don"t know which one it is nor what its unexpected effect will be. This is why science fiction is not prophecy-and why fictional speculation can be so much fun both to read and to write.
1980 (No, I still don"t know what that revolutionary gadget is-unless it is the computer chip.) The s.e.xual revolution: it continues apace-FemLib, GayLib, single women with progeny and never a lifted eyebrow, staid old universities and colleges that permit unmarried couples to room together on campus, group marriages, "open" marriages, miles and miles of "liberated" beaches. Most of this can be covered by one sentence: What used to be concealed is now done openly. But s.e.xual att.i.tudes are in flux; the new ones not yet cultural mores.
But I think I see a trend, one that might jell by 2000 A.D. The racial biological function of "family" is the protection of children and pregnant women. To accomplish that, family organization must be rewarding to men as well .. . and I do not mean copulation. There is a cynical old adage covering that: "Why keep a cow when milk is so cheap?" A marriage must offer its members emotional, spiritual, and physical comforts superior to those to be found in living alone if that prime function is to be accomplished.
(Stipulated: there are individuals, both s.e.xes, who prefer to live alone. This is racially self-correcting.) The American core family (father, mother, two or three children) has ceased to be emotionally satisfying-if it ever was. It is a creation of our times: mobility, birth control, easy divorce. Early in this century the core family was mother, father, four to eight children.. . and was itself a unit in an extended family of grandparents, aunts, uncles, and cousins living near enough (if not in the same house) to be mutually supportive. If a child was ill, Aunt Cora came over to help while Aunt Abby took the other kids into her home. See Mauve Decade fiction.
With increased mobility and fewer children this undefined extended-family pattern disappeared almost without its disappearance being noticed. To the extent to which it was noticed there was often glee at being free of the nuisance of in-laws and kinfolk. It took considerably longer to realize that the advantages had also disappeared.
We will not get a return of the extended family of the sort that characterized the 19th century and the early 20th . . . but the current flux of swingers" clubs, group marriages, spouse swapping, etc., is, in my opinion, fumbling and almost unconscious attempts to regain the pleasure, emotional comfort, and mutual security once found in the extended family of two or more generations back.
Prediction: by 2000 A.D. or soon thereafter extended families of several sorts will be more common than core families. The common characteristic of the various types will be increased security for children under legally enforceable contracts.
3. 1950 The most important military fact of this century is that there is no way to repel an attack from outer s.p.a.ce.
1965 I flatly stand by this one. True, we are now working on Nike- Zeus and Nike-X and related systems and plan to spend billions on such systems-and we know that others are doing the same thing.
True, it is possible to hit an object in orbit or trajectory. Nevertheless this prediction is as safe as predicting tomorrow"s sunrise. Anti-aircraft fire never stopped air attacks; it simply made them expensive.
The disadvantage in being at the bottom of a deep "gravity well" is very great; gravity gauge will be as crucial in the coming years as wind gauge was in the days when sailing ships controlled empires. The nation that controls the Moon will control the Earth-but no one seems willing these days to speak that nasty fact out loud.
1980 I have just heard a convincing report that the USSR has developed lasers far better than ours that can blind our eyes-in-the-sky satellites and, presumably, destroy our ICBMs in flight. Stipulate that this rumor is true: It does not change my 1950 a.s.sertion one iota. Missiles tossed from the Moon to the Earth need not be H-bombs or any sort of bomb-or even missile-shaped. All they need be is ma.s.sive.. .
because they arrive at approximately seven miles per second. A laser capable of blinding a satellite and of disabling an ICBM to the point where it can"t explode would need to be orders of magnitude more powerful in order to volatilize a house-size chunk of Luna. For further details see my THE MOON IS A HARSH MISTRESS.
4. 1950 It is utterly impossible that the United States will start a "preventive war." We will fight when attacked, either directly or in a territory we have guaranteed to defend.
1965 Since 1950 we have done so in several theaters and are doing so in Viet Nam as this is written.
"Preventive" or "pre-emptive" war seems as unlikely as ever, no matter who is in the White House. Here is a new prediction: World War III (as a major, all-out war) will not take place at least until 1980 and could easily hold off until 2000. This is a very happy prediction compared with the situation in 1950, as those years of grace may turn up basic factors which (I hope!) may postpone disaster still longer. We were much closer to ultimate disaster around 1955 than we are today-much closer indeed than we were at the time of the Cuban Confrontation in 1962. But the public never knew it. All in all, things look pretty good for survival, for the time being-and that is as good a break as our ancestors ever had. It was far more dangerous to live in London in 1664-5 than it is to live in a city threatened by H-bombs today.
1980 lam forced to revise the 1950 prediction to this extent: It is no longer certain that we will fight to repel attack on territory we have guaranteed to defend; our behavior both with respect to Viet Nam and to Taiwan is a clear warning to our NATO allies. The question is not whether we should ever have been in Viet Nam or whether we should ever have allied ourselves to the Nationalist Chinese. I do not know of any professional military man who favored ever getting into combat on the continent of Asia; such war for us is a logistic and strategic disaster.
But to break a commitment to an ally once it has been made is to destroy our credibility.
5. 1950 In fifteen years the housing shortage will be solved by a "breakthrough" into new technology which will make every house now standing as obsolete as privies.
1965 Here I fell flat on my face. There has been no breakthrough in housing, nor is any now in prospect- instead the ancient, wasteful methods of building are now being confirmed by public subsidies.
The degree of our backwardness in the field is hard to grasp; we have never seen a modern house. Think what an automobile would be if each one were custom-built from materials fetched to your home-what would it look like, what would it do, and how much would it cost. But don"t set the cost lower than $100,000 or the speed higher than 10 rn/h, if you want to be realistic about the centuries of difference between the housing industry and the automotive industry.
I underestimated (through wishful thinking) the power of human stupidity-a fault fatal to prophecy.
1980 I"m still flat on my face with my nose rubbed in the mud; the situation is worse than ever. See A BATHROOM OF HER OWN on page 244. And that figure of $100,000 just above was with gold at $35 per troy ounce-so change it to one million dollars-or call it 2700 troy ounces of gold. Or forget it. The point is that it would be very nearly impossible to build even a clunker automobile at any price if we built them the way we build houses.
We have the technology to build cheap, beautiful, efficient, flexible (modular method) houses, extremely comfortable and with the durability of a Rolls Royce. But I cannot guess when (if ever) the powers that be (local bureaucrats, unions, building materials suppliers, county and state officials) will permit us poor serfs to have modern housing.
6. 1950 We"ll all be getting a little hungry by and by.
1965 No new comment.
1980 Not necessarily. In 1950 I was too pessimistic concerning population. Now I suspect that the controlling parameter is oil. In modern agriculture oil is the prime factor-as power for farm machinery (obviously) but also for insecticides and for fertilizers. Since our oil policies in Washington are about as boneheaded-counterproductive-as they can be, I have no way to guess how much food we can raise in 2000 A.D. But no one in the United States should be hungry in 2000 A.D.-unless we are conquered and occupied.
7. 1950 The cult of the phony in art will disappear. So-called "modern art" will be discussed only by psychiatrists.
1965 No new comment.
1980 One may hope. But art reflects culture and the world is even nuttier now than it was in 1950; these are the Crazy Years. But, while "fine" art continues to look like the work of r.e.t.a.r.ded monkeys, commercial art grows steadily better.
8. 1950 Freud will be cla.s.sed as a pre-scientific, intuitive pioneer and psychoa.n.a.lysis will be replaced by a growing, changing "operational psychology" based on measurement and prediction.
1965 No new comment.
1980 This prediction is beginning to come true. Freud is no longer taken seriously by informed people. More and more professional psychologists are skilled in appropriate mathematics; most of the younger ones understand inductive methodology and the nature of scientific confirmation and are trying hard to put rigor into their extremely difficult, still inchoate subject. For some of the current progress see Dr. Pournelle"s book, cited on page 325.
By 2000 A.D. we will know a great deal about how the brain functions . . . whereas in 1900 what little we knew was wrong.
I do not predict that the basic mystery of psychology-how ma.s.s arranged in certain complex patterns becomes aware of itself-will be solved by 2000 A.D. I hope so but do not expect it.
9. 1950 Cancer, the common cold, and tooth decay will all be conquered; the revolutionary new problem in medical research will be to accomplish "regeneration," i.e., to enable a man to grow a new leg, rather than fit him with an artificial limb.
1965 In the meantime spectacular progress has been made in organ transplants-and the problem of regeneration is related to this one. Biochemistry and genetics have made a spectacular breakthrough in "cracking the genetic code." It is a tiny crack, however, with a long way to go before we will have the human chromosomes charted and still longer before we will be able to "tailor" human beings by gene manipulation. The possibility is there-but not by year 2000. This is probably just as well. If we aren"t bright enough to build decent houses, are we bright enough to play G.o.d with the architecture of human beings?
1980 I see no reason to change this prediction if you will let me elaborate (weasel) a little. "The common cold" is a portmanteau expression for upper respiratory infections which appear to be caused by a very large number of different viruses. Viruses are pesky things. It is possible to immunize against them, e.g., vaccination against smallpox, a virus disease. But there are almost no chemotherapies, medicines, against viruses. That is why "the common cold" is treated much the same way today as in 1900, i.e., support the patient with bed rest, liquids, aspirin to make him more comfortable, keep him warm. This was standard in 1900 and it is still standard in 1980.
It is probable that your body makes antibodies against the virus of any cold you catch. But this gives you no protection against that virus"s hundreds of close relatives found in any airport, theater, supermarket, or gust of dust off the street. In the meantime, while his kinfolk take turns making you miserable, virus #1 has mutated and you have no antibodies against the mutation.
Good news: Oncology (cancer), immunology, hematology, and "the common cold" turn out to be strongly interrelated subjects; research in all these is pioving fast-and a real breakthrough in any one might mean a breakthrough in all.
10. 1950 By the end of this century mankind will have explored this solar system, and the first ship intended to reach the nearest star will be a building.
1965 Our editor suggested that I had been too optimistic on this one-but I still stand by it. It is still thirty-five years to the end of the century. For perspective; look back thirty-five years to 1930-the American Rocket Society had not yet been founded. Another curve, similar to the one herewith in shape but derived entirely from speed of transportation, extrapolates to show faster-than-light travel by year 2000. I guess I"m chicken, for I am not predicting FTL ships by then, if ever. But the prediction still stands without hedging.
1980 My money is still on the table at twenty years and counting. Senator Proxmire can"t live forever. In the last 101/2 years men have been to the Moon several times; much of the Solar system has been most thoroughly explored within the limits of "black box" technology and more will be visited before this year is out.
Ah, but not explored by men-and the distances are so great. Surely they are. . . by free-fall orbits, which is all that we have been using. But there are numerous proposals (and not all ours!) for constant-boost ships, proposals that require R&D on present art only-no breakthroughs.
Reach for your pocket calculator and figure how long it would take to make a trip to Mars and back if your ship could boost at one-tenth gee. We will omit some trivia by making it from parking orbit to parking orbit, use straight-line trajectories, and ignore the Sun"s field-we"ll be going uphill to Mars, downhill to Earth; what we lose on the roundabouts we win on the shys.
These casual a.s.sumptions would cause Dan Alderson, ballistician at Jet Propulsion Laboratory, to faint. But after he comes out of his faint he would agree that our answers would be of correct close order of magnitude-and all I"m trying to prove is that even a slight constant boost makes an enormous difference in touring the Solar System. (Late in the 21st century we"ll offer the Economy Tour: Ten Planets in Ten Days.) There are an unlimited number of distances between rather wide parameters for an Earth-Ma.r.s.earth trip but we will select one that is nearly minimum (it"s cheating to wait in orbit at Mars for about a year in order take the shortest trip each way.. . and unthinkable to wait years for the closest approach). We"ll do this s.p.a.ce Patrol style: There"s Mars, here we are at L-5; let"s scoot over, swing around Mars, and come straight home. Just for drill.
Conditions: Earth-surface gravity (one "gee") is an acceleration of 32.2 feet per second squared, or 980.7 centimeters per second squared. Mars is in or near op position (Mars is rising as Sun is setting). We will a.s.sume that the round trip is 120,000,000 miles. If we were willing to wait for closest approach we could trim that to less than 70,000,000 miles .. . but we might have to wait as long as 17 years. So we"ll take a common or garden variety opposition-one every 26 months-for which the distance to Mars is about 50- to 60,000,000 miles and never over 64 million.
(With Mars in conjunction on the far side of the Sun, we could take the scenic route of over 500 million miles-how much over depends on how easily you sunburn. I suggest a minimum of 700 million miles.) You now have all necessary data to figure the time it takes to travel Earth-Mars-Earth in a constant-boost ship-any constant-boost ship-when Mars is at opposition. (If you insist on the scenic route, you can"t treat the trajectory approximations as straight lines and you can"t treat s.p.a.ce as flat but a bit uphill. You"ll need Alderson or his equal and a big computer, not a pocket calculator; the equations are very hairy and sometimes shoot back.) But us two s.p.a.ce cadets are doing this by eyeballing it, using Tennessee windage, an aeros.p.a.ce almanac, a Mickey Mouse watch, and an SR-50 Pop discarded years ago.
We need just one equation: Velocity equals acceleration times elapsed time: v = at This tells us that our average speed is 1/2at-and from that we know that the distance achieved is the average speed times the elapsed time: d = 1/2at2 If you don"t believe me, check any physics text, encyclopedia, or nineteen other sorts of reference books-and I did that derivation without cracking a book but now I"m going to stop and find out whether I"ve goofed-I"ve had years of practice in goofing. (Later-seems okay.) Just two things to remember: 1) This is a 4-piecee trip-boost to midpoint, flip over and boost to brake; then do the same thing coming home. Treat all four legs as being equal or 30,000,000 miles, so figure one of them and multiply by four (Dan, stop frowning; this is an approximation . . . done with a Mickey Mouse watch.) 2) You must keep your units straight. If you start with centimeters, you are stuck with centimeters; if you start with feet, you are stuck with feet. So we have 1/4 of the trip equals 5280 x 30,000,000 = 1.584 x 1011 feet, or 4.827 x 1012 centimeters.
One last bit: Since it is elapsed time we are after, we will rearrange that equation (d = 1/2at2) so that you can get the answer in one operation on your trustybut-outdated pocket calculator. . . or even on a slide rule, as those four-significant-figures data are mere sw.a.n.k; I"ve used so many approximations and ignored so many minor variables that I"ll be happy to get answers correct to two significant figures.
- = t2 This gives us: t = Vd/1/2a V2a
d is 30,000,000 miles expressed in feet, or 158,400,000,000. Set that into your pocket calculator.
Divide it by one half of one tenth of gee, or 1.61. Push the square root b.u.t.ton. Multiply by 4. You now have the elapsed time of the round trip expressed in seconds so divide by 3600 and you have it in hours, and divide that by 24 and you have it in days.
At this point you are supposed to be astonished and to start looking for the mistake. While you are looking, I"m going to slide out to the refrigerator.
There is no mistake. Work it again, this time in metric. Find a reference book and check the equation. You will find the answer elsewhere in this book but don"t look for it yet; we"ll try some other trips you may take by 2000 A.D. if you speak j.a.panese or German-or even English if Proxmire and his ilk fail of reelection.
Same trip, worked the same way, but at only one percent of gee. At that boost I would weigh less than my shoes weigh here in my study.
Hmmph! Looks as if one answer or the other must be wrong.
Bear with me. This time we"ll work it at a full gee, the acceleration you experience lying in bed, asleep. (See Einstein"s 1905 paper.) (Preposterous. All three answers must be wrong.) Please stick with me a little longer. Let"s run all three problems for a round trip to Pluto-in 2006 A.D., give or take a year. Why 2006? Because today Pluto has ducked inside the orbit of Neptune and won"t reach perihelion until 1989-and I want it to be a bit farther away; I"ve got a rabbit stashed in the hat.
Pluto ducks outside again in 2003 and by 2006 it will be (give or take a few million miles) 31.6 A.U.
from the Sun, figuring an A.U. at 92,900,000 miles or 14,950,000,000,000 centimeters as we"ll work this both ways, MKS and English units. (All right, all right-i .495 x 1013 centimeters; it gets dull here at this typewriter.) Now work it all three ways, a round trip of 63.2 A.U. at a constant boost of one gravity, one tenth gravity, and one hundredth of a gee-and we"ll dedicate this to Clyde Tombaugh, the only living man to discover a new planet-through months of tedious and painstaking examination of many thousands of films.
Some think that Pluto was once a satellite and its small size makes this possible. But it is not a satellite today. It is both far too big and hundreds of millions of miles out of position to be an asteroid. It can"t be a comet. So it"s a planet-or something so exotic as to be still more of a prize.
Its size made it hard to find and thus still more of an achievment. But Tombaugh continued the search for seventeen weary years and many millions more films. If there is an Earth-size planet out there, it is at least three times as distant as Pluto, and a gas giant would have to be six times as far. Negative data win no prizes but they are the bedrock of science.
Until James W. Christy on 22 June 1978 discovered Pluto"s satellite, Charon, it was possible for us romantics to entertain the happy thought that Pluto was loaded with valuable heavy metals; the best estimate of its density made this plausible. But the ma.s.s of a planet with a satellite can be calculated quite easily and accurately, and from that, its density.
The new figure was much too low, only half again as heavy as water. Methane snow? Perhaps.
So once again a lovely theory is demolished by an awkward fact.