We"ll lose all of Asia, then Europe, and then we"ll be a rich little island all by ourselves. That means World War Three."
He shook his head, a lion bothered by gnats. "And when that comes to pa.s.s I"d sure hate to depend on the Galbraiths and that Harvard crowd to protect my property."
He walked to the credenza and poured another scotch.
Whitey accepted a red wine that LBJ carefully poured for him. It was dry and velvety. The bottle had not been open more than a few hours, he decided.
"Well, what do you think?" LBJ said in a loud voice.
"Excellent wine, sir."
"G.o.dd.a.m.nit, that"s not what I meant. What do you think of my theory?"
Whitey looked thoughtful. "I"m not as certain as you are that our congressmen are controlled by anything other than a desire to do what they think is best." He stopped short of saying what he thought a congressman thought best-which was, he was sure, reelection and whatever it took to garner votes.
"That"s not saying anything at all," LBJ scoffed. "Now, here, I want you to read something that came in tonight."
He pressed a b.u.t.ton and his Marine military aide entered with a briefcase. LBJ took it and waved him away. The man saluted, did a clicking about-face on the inlaid stone, and departed. The President took a sheaf of papers from a red notebook in the case and handed several to Whitey. "Read these," he said. "What do they mean? Here I am, trying to set up peace talks with Ho, and I get messages like these."
Whitey read the top sheet.
FROM: COMUSMACV TO: ALL COMMANDERS.
QQQQ.
SECRET NOFORN SUBJ: OPERATION HOBBY HORSE (U) 1. (S/NF) GOV" T SOUTH.
VIETNAM HAS ANNOUNCED.
THAT A 36 HOUR TET CEASEFIRE WILL BE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD MONDAY.
291800H.
TO WEDNESDAY 310600HJAN. THEUSPOSITION FOR TET HAS NOT BEEN FORMALLY.
DECLARED AT THIS TIME.
2. (SINF) OPERATION HOBBY HORSE, OUTLINED HEREIN, WILL BE IMPLEMENTED.
ON RECEIPT OF THIS MESSAGE TO MAXIMIZE OUR TACTICAL POTENTIAL. HOBBY.
HORSE WILL BE EXECUTED IN TWO PHASES: A. (SINF) PHASE ONE. EFFECTIVE.
IMMEDIATELY, COMMANDERS WILL INITIATE A COMPREHENSIVE AND INTENSIVE.
INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION EFFORT TO IDENTIFY AND PIN POINT ENEMY TROOP.
LOCATIONS, BASES, FACILITIES, AND LINES OF COMMUNICATIONS. THIS.
INTELLIGENCE COLLECTION EFFORT IS STRESSED DURING THE TET CEASE FIRE.
THIS HQ WILL PROVIDE, BY SEPARATE MESSAGE, SPECIFIC INSTRUCTIONS TASKING.
AIR AND GROUND RECONNAISSANCE. ALL COMMANDERS WILL PREPARE DETAILED.
ATTACK AND FIRE PLANS FOR ALL WEAPONS SYSTEMS INCLUDING ARTY, NGF,.
TACAIR, AND B-52 ARC LIGHTWHICHWILLBEEXECUTEDDURINGPHASE.
TWO, HOBBY HORSE.
B. (S/NF) PHASE TWO. IT IS ANTIc.i.p.aTED ENEMY ALERTNESS WILL REACH A.
PEAK IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING CEASEFIRE PERIOD. COMMANDERS WILL DETERMINE.
THE MOST ADVANTAGEOUS TIME SUBSEQUENT TO CEASEFIRE TO STRIKE THE ENEMY.
WHEN HE IS MOST VULNERABLE AND LEAST EXPECTING AN ATTACK. IT IS a.s.sUMED.
THESE OPPORTUNITIES WILL VARY BY AREA AND TARGET. THE DISCRETION AND.
JUDGMENT OF THE RESPONSIBLE COMMANDER WILL PREVAIL IN ALL INSTANCES.
3. (SINF) IN THE PAST, FREE WORLD FORCES HAVE DERIVED NO DISCERNIBLE.
MILITARY AD VANTAGES FROM HOLIDAY CEASEFIRES. IT IS ESSENTIAL,.
THEREFORE, THAT OUR INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES BE EMPLOYED TO THE LIMIT.
OF THE IMPOSED CEASEFIRE CONSTRAINTS DURING THE TRUCE PERIOD; AND THAT.
THE FULL WEIGHT OF OUR FIREPOWER AND MANEUVER MOBILITYBE APPLIED WITH.
PRECISION, Ma.s.s, AND PREEMPTIVE SUDDENNESS.
FOLLOWING THE CEASEFIRE.
4. (S) TO BE FULLY EFFECTIVE, HOBBY HORSE PLANNING MUST BE CLOSELY.
COORDINATED WITH FRIENDLY FORCES.
. (U) ACTION ADDRESSEES ACKNOWLEDGE BY MSG.
OR TELEPHONE MACV 2927 OR EAC 381.
The second sheet was a summary of Disums (Daily Intelligence Summaries) with pertinent points extracted.
On 5 Jan 68 troops of the US 4th Infantry Division captured a detailed plan t.i.tled "Urgent Combat Order Number One " f or an attack on Pleiku province to begin before the Tet holidays.
On 10 Jan, Commander II Field Force, General Fred Weyand, put together pieces of intelligence to conclude the VC in the III Corps Tactical Zone were moving from border sanctuaries toward population centers including Saigon.
On 15 Jan men of the 4th Division detected movement from beyond the Cambodian border of two NVA regiments toward the Vietnamese border.
On 18 Jan ARVN securit troops in Qui Nhon captured eleven VC, a tape recorder, and two tapes exhorting the people and armed forces to go over to the side of the attacking Viet Cong. The VC admitted they were to be played during the attack on Qui Nhon and other cities during the Tet holidays.
The next sheet contained two cla.s.sified messages from General Westmoreland, COMUSMACV, to the U.S. Army Chief of Staff: 20 JAN 68 SECRET, NOFORN TO: CHIEF OF STAFF, US ARMY 1. (S/NF) THE.
ENEMY IS PRESENTLY DEVELOPING A THREATENING POSTURE IN SEVERAL AREAS IN.
ORDER TO SEEK VICTORIES ESSENTIAL TO ACHIEVING PRESTIGE AND BARGAINING.
POWER. HE MAY EXERCISE HIS INITIATIVES PRIOR TO, DURING, OR AFTER TET.
2. (S/NF) ACCORDINGLY, UPON MY REQUEST PRESIDENT THIEU HAS REDUCED TET.
CEASE FIRE FROM FORTY-EIGHT TO THIRTY-SIX HOURS, AND WILL MAINTAIN FIFTY.
PERCENT OF ARVN TROOPS ON ALERT.
SIGNED WESTMORELAND/COMUSMACV.
22 JAN 68 SECRET TO: CHIEF OF STAFF, US ARMY 1. (S) I THINK THE ENEMY".
S PLANS CONCERN A MAJOR EFFORT TO WIN A SPECTACULAR BATTLEFIELD SUCCESS.
ON THE EVE OF THE TET FESTIVAL NEXT MONDAY.
SIGNED WESTMORELANDZCOMUSMACV.
Tet was the Vietnamese name for the traditional holiday to celebrate the lunar new year. It was like combining Christmas and New Year"s into one big celebration.
Whitey looked up. He knew all about these messages. He was one of the few who had insisted they be in the President"s hands.
"Remember last year," Whitey said. "During the truce Ho increased supplies down the Trail to an unprecedented level. And when the Pope urged Thieu to grant a thirty-sixhour extension of the Tet holiday truce, Thieu did, and the Viet Cong attacked the 25th Division in force." He stood up. "I think what these mean is that our commanders are concerned that a major attack by VC and NVA troops is imminent. But this time I don"t think we have any Battle-of-the-Bulge or Red-Chinese-attack-from-Manchuria syndrome, as we did in World War Two and Korea.
Both attacks were a surprise and initially successful because both were clear intelligence failures on our part; no one predicted or foresaw those events, based on clear and current intelligence at the time. Now we have reasonable intelligence that suggests a major attack during the Tet truce period. I wish General Westmoreland had been able to get President Thieu"s permission to cancel the entire truce period and put all his troops on alert."
"Well, now, which is it?" the President said. "Do they just want to take and hold land in preparation for the Paris peace talks that are due entirely to my initiative? Or is it a prelude to a sneak attack?" He looked at the fire for a few moments, then spoke again. "No, they wouldn"t make any sneak attack. Ho knows I"m trying to talk to him. He wouldn"t do that. He"s a reasonable man, a right-thinking man. He wants the same thing for his people I do--peace and prosperity."
"Two Although LBJ hoped the contacts from North Vietnam were real, an NSC report said there was very little of substance from the Swiss intermediaries who had suggested that Ho Chi Minh might want to send representatives to Paris to meet with the Americans. Backroom opinion had it that LBJ wanted a dialogue with the North Vietnamese communist leader so much that he was making reality out of his hopes.
Ho Chi Minh, whose other names were Nguyen Ai Quoc and Nguyen Tat Thanh, had been a founding member of the French communist party in 1920. He had been out of Vietnam for decades working as a Soviet-trained Comintern agent in China, Hong Kong, and Indonesia. Emulating Stalin to gain power in Vietnam, he had murdered thousands of kulaks-landlords-in 1955. When a revolt over the murders had broken out in his own province, he had had 6,000 peasants killed or imprisoned. Currently, he had over 4,000 government officials and LOCAL village authorities in the South a.s.sa.s.sinated each year. His goal was an Indochina communist party wherein he ruled North and South Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos.
"Mister President, Ho is capable of anything. He may well attack during Tet."
"G.o.dd.a.m.nit, why do you say that? There you go, all doom and gloom. You and those other generals have got to see the bright side of life someday."
"Sir, all those messages in your file point to such an attack. May I?"
He pointed to the red notebook. When LBJ nodded, he picked it up, thumbed through, and handed the book to the President, opened to the excerpted TWX. "This one proves," Whitey said, "that even Thieu is now convinced of such an attack."
SECRET 30 JAN 68 1. (CINF) THE GOV" T OF VIETNAM HAS CANCELED THE 36.
HOUR CEASEFIRE FOR TET. ACCORDINGLY, THE TET CEASEFIRE FOR US FORCES IS.
HEREBY CANCELED.
2. (C) EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY ALL FORCES WILL RESUME INTENSIFIED.
OPERATIONS, AND TROOPS WILL BE PLACED ON MAXIMUM ALERT WITH PARTICULAR.
ATTENTION TO THE DEFENSE OF HEADQUARTERS COMPLEXES, LOGISTICAL.
INSTALLATIONS, AIRFIELDS 5 POPULATION CENTERS, AND BILLETS. ALL UNITS.
WILL BE PARTICULARLY ALERT TO DECEPTION MEASURES BY THE ENEMY AND BE.
POISED TO AGGRESSIVELY PURSUE AND DESTROY ANY ENEMY FORCE WHICH ATTACKS.
3. (U)ACTIONADDRESSEESACKNOWLEDGEBYMSG OR TELEPHONE MACV 2927 OR EAC.
381.
"Yes, yes, I saw that. I think maybe it"s foolish."
"Sir, just last month the Agency reported there would be an all-out attack on or before Tet." By the Agency, Whitey meant the Central Intelligence Agency.
"Yes, yes, I know that too. But one of their own men said the report was a lot of bulls.h.i.t."
The problem was, Whitey knew exactly about that dichotomy. In December a group of CIA operatives in a small office in downtown Saigon had turned in a field report stating that the war had reached a turning point and that under Giap there would be a major offensive on or before Tet. It even went on to say that, over his objections, Giap had to be ordered by Ho Chi Minh to commence planning and to implement the attack.
The report had gone up the chain to the DCI, Director Richard Helms, who had turned it over to his Vietnam-watcher, a specialist named George Carver" Carver"s memo saying the report wasn"t accurate had permeated the White House staff. End result, there could be no Tet attack, even the CIA said so.
"You must not be so pessimistic," the President said. "Ho is a reasonable man. He would not attack during a religious holiday. Too much to lose. I think he wants to negotiate."
"Sir, with all respect, I do not believe he is seriously coDsidering any negotiations with the United States until he sees the results of the presidential election this fall."
The President"s face tightened, his eyes took on a wounded look. He fell into a chair and stared into the fire.
"Don"t you ever let go? One of these days . . ." He took a deep swallow of his drink. "How many Americans do we have in that G.o.dforsaken country now?" He turned the gla.s.s of scotch in his hands, The flames made dancing shadows on the stone floor. The possibility of a Tet attack was forgotten.
Whitey Whisenand knew the figures. "We have 485,000 in-country, sir.
And 17,600 combat deaths." As he spoke, Whitey reached into his briefcase and extracted a small poster board with a black border and grease-pencil figures.
He read the headings and figures for aircrews, that he updated daily, to the Commander in Chief of the United States Armed Forces.
Aircrew MIA/KIA POW Aircraft USAF 387 199 855 USN 221 127 363 USMC 71 14 201 USA 156 56 444 (Helios) TOTAL 835 396 1863.