These zones are seldom sharply defined, nor are they always all in evidence. How far they are in evidence will depend, among other things, upon the amount and rapidity of erosion, the structure and mineralogical character of the deposit, and upon the enclosing rock.
If erosion is extremely rapid, as in cold, wet climates, and rough topography, or as in the case of glaciation of the Lake copper deposits, denudation follows close on the heels of alteration, and the surface is so rapidly removed that we may have the primary ore practically at the surface. Flat, arid regions present the other extreme, for denudation is much slower, and conditions are most perfect for deep penetration of oxidizing agencies, and the consequent alteration and concentration of the metals.
The migration of metals from the top of the oxidized zone leaves but a barren cap for erosion. The consequent effect of denudation that lags behind alteration is to raise slowly the concentrated metals toward the surface, and thus subject them to renewed attack and repeated migration. In this manner we can account for the enormous concentration of values in the lower oxidized and upper sulphide zones overlying very lean sulphides in depth.
Some minerals are more freely soluble and more readily precipitated than others. From this cause there is in complex metal deposits a rearrangement of horizontal sequence, in addition to enrichment at certain horizons and impoverishment at others. The whole subject is one of too great complexity for adequate consideration in this discussion. No engineer is properly equipped to give judgment on extension in depth without a thorough grasp of the great principles laid down by Van Hise, Emmons, Lindgren, Weed, and others. We may, however, briefly examine some of the theoretical effects of such alteration.
Zinc, iron, and lead sulphides are a common primary combination.
These metals are rendered soluble from their usual primary forms by oxidizing agencies, in the order given. They reprecipitate as sulphides in the reverse sequence. The result is the leaching of zinc and iron readily in the oxidized zone, thus differentially enriching the lead which lags behind, and a further extension of the lead horizon is provided by the early precipitation of such lead as does migrate. Therefore, the lead often predominates in the second and the upper portion of the third zone, with the zinc and iron below. Although the action of all surface waters is toward oxidation and carbonation of these metals, the carbonate development of oxidized zones is more marked when the enclosing rocks are calcareous.
In copper-iron deposits, the comparatively easy decomposition and solubility and precipitation of the copper and some iron salts generally result in more extensive impoverishment of these metals near the surface, and more predominant enrichment at a lower horizon than is the case with any other metals. The barren "iron hat" at the first zone, the carbonates and oxides at the second, the enrichment with secondary copper sulphides at the top of the third, and the occurrence of secondary copper-iron sulphides below, are often most clearly defined. In the easy recognition of the secondary copper sulphides, chalcocite, bornite, etc., the engineer finds a finger-post on the road to extension in depth; and the directions upon this post are not to be disregarded. The number of copper deposits enriched from unpayability in the first zone to a profitable character in the next two, and unpayability again in the fourth, is legion.
Silver occurs most abundantly in combination with either lead, copper, iron, or gold. As it resists oxidation and solution more strenuously than copper and iron, its tendency when in combination with them is to lag behind in migration. There is thus a differential enrichment of silver in the upper two zones, due to the reduction in specific gravity of the ore by the removal of a.s.sociated metals.
Silver does migrate somewhat, however, and as it precipitates more readily than copper, lead, zinc, or iron, its tendency when in combination with them is towards enrichment above the horizons of enrichment of these metals. When it is in combination with lead and zinc, its very ready precipitation from solution by the galena leaves it in combination more predominantly with the lead. The secondary enrichment of silver deposits at the top of the sulphide zone is sometimes a most p.r.o.nounced feature, and it seems to be the explanation of the origin of many "bonanzas."
In gold deposits, the greater resistance to solubility of this metal than most of the others, renders the phenomena of migration to depth less marked. Further than this, migration is often interfered with by the more impervious quartz matrix of many gold deposits.
Where gold is a.s.sociated with large quant.i.ties of base metals, however, the leaching of the latter in the oxidized zone leaves the ore differentially richer, and as gold is also slightly soluble, in such cases the migration of the base metals does carry some of the gold. In the instance especially of impregnation or replacement deposits, where the matrix is easily permeable, the upper sulphide zone is distinctly richer than lower down, and this enrichment is accompanied by a considerable increase in sulphides and tellurides.
The predominant characteristic of alteration in gold deposits is, however, enrichment in the oxidized zone with the maximum values near the surface. The reasons for this appear to be that gold in its resistance to oxidation and wholesale migration gives opportunities to a sort of combined mechanical and chemical enrichment.
In dry climates, especially, the gentleness of erosion allows of more thorough decomposition of the outcroppings, and a mechanical separation of the gold from the detritus. It remains on or near the deposit, ready to be carried below, mechanically or otherwise.
In wet climates this is less p.r.o.nounced, for erosion bears away the croppings before such an extensive decomposition and freeing of the gold particles. The West Australian gold fields present an especially prominent example of this type of superficial enrichment.
During the last fifteen years nearly eight hundred companies have been formed for working mines in this region. Although from four hundred of these high-grade ore has been produced, some thirty-three only have ever paid dividends. The great majority have been unpayable below oxidation,--a distance of one or two hundred feet. The writer"s unvarying experience with gold is that it is richer in the oxidized zone than at any point below. While cases do occur of gold deposits richer in the upper sulphide zone than below, even the upper sulphides are usually poorer than the oxidized region. In quartz veins preeminently, evidence of enrichment in the third zone is likely to be practically absent.
Tin ores present an anomaly among the base metals under discussion, in that the primary form of this metal in most workable deposits is an oxide. Tin in this form is most difficult of solution from ground agencies, as witness the great alluvial deposits, often of considerable geologic age. In consequence the phenomena of migration and enrichment are almost wholly absent, except such as are due to mechanical penetration of tin from surface decomposition of the matrix akin to that described in gold deposits.
In general, three or four essential facts from secondary alteration must be kept in view when prognosticating extensions.
Oxidation usually alters treatment problems, and oxidized ore of the same grade as sulphides can often be treated more cheaply.
This is not universal. Low-grade ores of lead, copper, and zinc may be treatable by concentration when in the form of sulphides, and may be valueless when oxidized, even though of the same grade.
Copper ores generally show violent enrichment at the base of the oxidized, and at the top of the sulphide zone.
Lead-zinc ores show lead enrichment and zinc impoverishment in the oxidized zone but have usually less p.r.o.nounced enrichment below water level than copper. The rearrangement of the metals by the deeper migration of the zinc, also renders them metallurgically of less value with depth.
Silver deposits are often differentially enriched in the oxidized zone, and at times tend to concentrate in the upper sulphide zone.
Gold deposits usually decrease in value from the surface through the whole of the three alteration zones.
SIZE OF DEPOSITS.--The proverb of a relation between extension in depth and size of ore-bodies expresses one of the oldest of miners" beliefs. It has some basis in experience, especially in fissure veins, but has little foundation in theory and is applicable over but limited areas and under limited conditions.
From a structural view, the depth of fissuring is likely to be more or less in proportion to its length and breadth and therefore the volume of vein filling with depth is likely to be proportional to length and width of the fissure. As to the distribution of values, if we eliminate the influence of changing wall rocks, or other precipitating agencies which often cause the values to arrange themselves in "floors," and of secondary alteration, there may be some reason to a.s.sume distribution of values of an extent equal vertically to that displayed horizontally. There is, as said, more reason in experience for this a.s.sumption than in theory. A study of the shape of a great many ore-shoots in mines of fissure type indicates that when the ore-shoots or ore-bodies are approaching vertical exhaustion they do not end abruptly, but gradually shorten and decrease in value, their bottom boundaries being more often wedge-shaped than even lenticular. If this could be taken as the usual occurrence, it would be possible (eliminating the evident exceptions mentioned above) to state roughly that the minimum extension of an ore-body or ore-shoot in depth below any given horizon would be a distance represented by a radius equal to one-half its length. By length is not meant necessarily the length of a horizontal section, but of one at right angles to the downward axis.
On these grounds, which have been reenforced by much experience among miners, the probabilities of extension are somewhat in proportion to the length and width of each ore-body. For instance, in the A mine, with an ore-shoot 1000 feet long and 10 feet wide, on its bottom level, the minimum extension under this hypothesis would be a wedge-shaped ore-body with its deepest point 500 feet below the lowest level, or a minimum of say 200,000 tons. Similarly, the B mine with five ore-bodies, each 300 hundred feet long and 10 feet wide, exposed on its lowest level, would have a minimum of five wedges 100 feet deep at their deepest points, or say 50,000 tons. This is not proposed as a formula giving the total amount of extension in depth, but as a sort of yardstick which has experience behind it. This experience applies in a much less degree to deposits originating from impregnation along lines of fissuring and not at all to replacements.
DEVELOPMENT IN NEIGHBORING MINES.--Mines of a district are usually found under the same geological conditions, and show somewhat the same habits as to extension in depth or laterally, and especially similar conduct of ore-bodies and ore-shoots. As a practical criterion, one of the most intimate guides is the actual development in adjoining mines. For instance, in Kalgoorlie, the Great Boulder mine is (March, 1908) working the extension of Ivanhoe lodes at points 500 feet below the lowest level in the Ivanhoe; likewise, the Block 10 lead mine at Broken Hill is working the Central ore-body on the Central boundary some 350 feet below the Central workings. Such facts as these must have a bearing on a.s.sessing the downward extension.
DEPTH OF EXHAUSTION.--All mines become completely exhausted at some point in depth. Therefore the actual distance to which ore can be expected to extend below the lowest level grows less with every deeper working horizon. The really superficial character of ore-deposits, even outside of the region of secondary enrichment is becoming every year better recognized. The prospector"s idea that "she gets richer deeper down," may have some basis near the surface in some metals, but it is not an idea which prevails in the minds of engineers who have to work in depth. The writer, with some others, prepared a list of several hundred dividend-paying metal mines of all sorts, extending over North and South America, Australasia, England, and Africa. Notes were made as far as possible of the depths at which values gave out, and also at which dividends ceased. Although by no means a complete census, the list indicated that not 6% of mines (outside banket) that have yielded profits, ever made them from ore won below 2000 feet. Of mines that paid dividends, 80% did not show profitable value below 1500 feet, and a sad majority died above 500. Failures at short depths may be blamed upon secondary enrichment, but the majority that reached below this influence also gave out. The geological reason for such general unseemly conduct is not so evident.
CONCLUSION.--As a practical problem, the a.s.sessment of prospective value is usually a case of "cut and try." The portion of the capital to be invested, which depends upon extension, will require so many tons of ore of the same value as that indicated by the standing ore, in order to justify the price. To produce this tonnage at the continued average size of the ore-bodies will require their extension in depth so many feet--or the discovery of new ore-bodies of a certain size. The five geological weights mentioned above may then be put into the scale and a basis of judgment reached.
CHAPTER IV.
Mine Valuation (_Continued_).
RECOVERABLE PERCENTAGE OF THE GROSS a.s.sAY VALUE; PRICE OF METALS; COST OF PRODUCTION.
The method of treatment for the ore must be known before a mine can be valued, because a knowledge of the recoverable percentage is as important as that of the gross value of the ore itself. The recoverable percentage is usually a factor of working costs. Practically every ore can be treated and all the metal contents recovered, but the real problem is to know the method and percentage of recovery which will yield the most remunerative result, if any. This limit to profitable recovery regulates the amount of metal which should be lost, and the amount of metal which consequently must be deducted from the gross value before the real net value of the ore can be calculated. Here, as everywhere else in mining, a compromise has to be made with nature, and we take what we can get--profitably. For instance, a copper ore may be smelted and a 99% recovery obtained.
Under certain conditions this might be done at a loss, while the same ore might be concentrated before smelting and yield a profit with a 70% recovery. An additional 20% might be obtained by roasting and leaching the residues from concentration, but this would probably result in an expenditure far greater than the value of the 20% recovered. If the ore is not already under treatment on the mine, or exactly similar ore is not under treatment elsewhere, with known results, the method must be determined experimentally, either by the examining engineer or by a special metallurgist.
Where partially treated products, such as concentrates, are to be sold, not only will there be further losses, but deductions will be made by the smelter for deleterious metals and other charges.
All of these factors must be found out,--and a few sample smelting returns from a similar ore are useful.
To cover the whole field of metallurgy and discuss what might apply, and how it might apply, under a hundred supposit.i.tious conditions would be too great a digression from the subject in hand. It is enough to call attention here to the fact that the residues from every treatment carry some metal, and that this loss has to be deducted from the gross value of the ore in any calculations of net values.
PRICE OF METALS.
Unfortunately for the mining engineer, not only has he to weigh the amount of risk inherent in calculations involved in the mine itself, but also that due to fluctuations in the value of metals.
If the ore is shipped to custom works, he has to contemplate also variations in freights and smelting charges. Gold from the mine valuer"s point of view has no fluctuations. It alone among the earth"s products gives no concern as to the market price. The price to be taken for all other metals has to be decided before the mine can be valued. This introduces a further speculation and, as in all calculations of probabilities, amounts to an estimate of the amount of risk. In a free market the law of supply and demand governs the value of metals as it does that of all other commodities. So far, except for tariff walls and smelting rings, there is a free market in the metals under discussion.
The demand for metals varies with the unequal fluctuations of the industrial tides. The sea of commercial activity is subject to heavy storms, and the mine valuer is compelled to serve as weather prophet on this ocean of trouble. High prices, which are the result of industrial booms, bring about overproduction, and the collapse of these begets a shrinkage of demand, wherein consequently the tide of price turns back. In mining for metals each pound is produced actually at a different cost. In case of an oversupply of base metals the price will fall until it has reached a point where a portion of the production is no longer profitable, and the equilibrium is established through decline in output. However, in the backward swing, due to lingering overproduction, prices usually fall lower than the cost of producing even a much-diminished supply. There is at this point what we may call the "basic" price, that at which production is insufficient and the price rises again. The basic price which is due to this undue backward swing is no more the real price of the metal to be contemplated over so long a term of years than is the highest price. At how much above the basic price of depressed times the product can be safely expected to find a market is the real question. Few mines can be bought or valued at this basic price. An indication of what this is can be gained from a study of fluctuations over a long term of years.
It is common to hear the average price over an extended period considered the "normal" price, but this basis for value is one which must be used with discretion, for it is not the whole question when mining. The "normal" price is the average price over a long term.
The lives of mines, and especially ore in sight, may not necessarily enjoy the period of this "normal" price. The engineer must balance his judgments by the immediate outlook of the industrial weather.
When lead was falling steadily in December, 1907, no engineer would accept the price of that date, although it was then below "normal"; his product might go to market even lower yet.
It is desirable to ascertain what the basic and normal prices are, for between them lies safety. Since 1884 there have been three cycles of commercial expansion and contraction. If the average prices are taken for these three cycles separately (1885-95), 1895-1902, 1902-08) it will be seen that there has been a steady advance in prices. For the succeeding cycles lead on the London Exchange,[*]
the freest of the world"s markets was 12 12_s._ 4_d._, 13 3_s._ 7_d._, and 17 7_s._ 0_d._ respectively; zinc, 17 14_s._ 10_d._, 19 3_s._ 8_d._, and 23 3_s._ 0_d._; and standard copper, 48 16_s._ 0_d._, 59 10_s._ 0_d._, and 65 7_s._ 0_d._ It seems, therefore, that a higher standard of prices can be a.s.sumed as the basic and normal than would be indicated if the general average of, say, twenty years were taken. During this period, the world"s gold output has nearly quadrupled, and, whether the quant.i.tative theory of gold be accepted or not, it cannot be denied that there has been a steady increase in the price of commodities. In all base-metal mining it is well to remember that the production of these metals is liable to great stimulus at times from the discovery of new deposits or new processes of recovery from hitherto unprofitable ores. It is therefore for this reason hazardous in the extreme to prophesy what prices will be far in the future, even when the industrial weather is clear. But some basis must be arrived at, and from the available outlook it would seem that the following metal prices are justifiable for some time to come, provided the present tariff schedules are maintained in the United States:
[Footnote *: All London prices are based on the long ton of 2,240 lbs. Much confusion exists in the copper trade as to the cla.s.sification of the metal. New York prices are quoted in electrolytic and "Lake"; London"s in "Standard." "Standard" has now become practically an arbitrary term peculiar to London, for the great bulk of copper dealt in is "electrolytic" valued considerably over "Standard."]
========================================================================== | Lead | Spelter | Copper | Tin | Silver |------------|----------|----------|----------|--------------- |London| N.Y.|Lon.| N.Y.|Lon.| N.Y.|Lon.| N.Y.| Lon. | N.Y.
| Ton |Pound|Ton |Pound|Ton |Pound|Ton |Pound|Per oz.|Per oz.
------------|------|-----|----|-----|----|-----|----|-----|-------|------- Basic Price | 11. |$.035|17 |$.040|52 |$.115|100|$.220| 22_d._|$.44 Normal Price| 13.5| .043| 21 | .050| 65 | .140| 130| .290| 26 | .52 ==========================================================================
In these figures the writer has not followed strict averages, but has taken the general outlook combined with the previous records.
The likelihood of higher prices for lead is more encouraging than for any other metal, as no new deposits of importance have come forward for years, and the old mines are reaching considerable depths. Nor does the frenzied prospecting of the world"s surface during the past ten years appear to forecast any very disturbing developments. The zinc future is not so bright, for metallurgy has done wonders in providing methods of saving the zinc formerly discarded from lead ores, and enormous supplies will come forward when required. The tin outlook is encouraging, for the supply from a mining point of view seems unlikely to more than keep pace with the world"s needs. In copper the demand is growing prodigiously, but the supplies of copper ores and the number of copper mines that are ready to produce whenever normal prices recur was never so great as to-day. One very hopeful fact can be deduced for the comfort of the base metal mining industry as a whole. If the growth of demand continues through the next thirty years in the ratio of the past three decades, the annual demand for copper will be over 3,000,000 tons, of lead over 1,800,000 tons, of spelter 2,800,000 tons, of tin 250,000 tons. Where such stupendous amounts of these metals are to come from at the present range of prices, and even with reduced costs of production, is far beyond any apparent source of supply. The outlook for silver prices is in the long run not bright. As the major portion of the silver produced is a bye product from base metals, any increase in the latter will increase the silver production despite very much lower prices for the precious metal. In the meantime the gradual conversion of all nations to the gold standard seems a matter of certainty. Further, silver may yet be abandoned as a subsidiary coinage inasmuch as it has now but a token value in gold standard countries if denuded of sentiment.
COST OF PRODUCTION.
It is hardly necessary to argue the relative importance of the determination of the cost of production and the determination of the recoverable contents of the ore. Obviously, the aim of mine valuation is to know the profits to be won, and the profit is the value of the metal won, less the cost of production.
The cost of production embraces development, mining, treatment, management. Further than this, it is often contended that, as the capital expended in purchase and equipment must be redeemed within the life of the mine, this item should also be included in production costs. It is true that mills, smelters, shafts, and all the paraphernalia of a mine are of virtually negligible value when it is exhausted; and that all mines are exhausted sometime and every ton taken out contributes to that exhaustion; and that every ton of ore must bear its contribution to the return of the investment, as well as profit upon it. Therefore it may well be said that the redemption of the capital and its interest should be considered in costs per ton. The difficulty in dealing with the subject from the point of view of production cost arises from the fact that, except possibly in the case of banket gold and some conglomerate copper mines, the life of a metal mine is unknown beyond the time required to exhaust the ore reserves. The visible life at the time of purchase or equipment may be only three or four years, yet the average equipment has a longer life than this, and the antic.i.p.ation for every mine is also for longer duration than the bare ore in sight.
For clarity of conclusions in mine valuation the most advisable course is to determine the profit in sight irrespective of capital redemption in the first instance. The questions of capital redemption, purchase price, or equipment cost can then be weighed against the margin of profit. One phase of redemption will be further discussed under "Amortization of Capital" and "Ratio of Output to the Mine."
The cost of production depends upon many things, such as the cost of labor, supplies, the size of the ore-body, the treatment necessary, the volume of output, etc.; and to discuss them all would lead into a wilderness of supposit.i.tious cases. If the mine is a going concern, from which reliable data can be obtained, the problem is much simplified. If it is virgin, the experience of other mines in the same region is the next resource; where no such data can be had, the engineer must fall back upon the experience with mines still farther afield. Use is sometimes made of the "comparison ton"