Each record recorded makes the record player worth a teensy bit more. Each record player sold makes the records have a slightly larger potential market. That word-potential-is especially important here. The market for any given record is less than the number of record players. It could be anything from a few less for a real blockbuster hit, to a lot less as in it sells only to the people who are both personal friends of the artist and own a record player. Which could be one . . . or zero, for that matter.
The same thing is true of movies, when you think about it. Only, in a way, the situation is worse. In another way, the situation is better. A movie needs electricity. It needs a reasonably powerful light source that even after spreading will be much brighter than the light in its surroundings. The light must be enough brighter to paint an image on the screen. Ah, the screen. Movies also need the screen. If the movie is atalking picture, it needs a better sound system than a Victrola. In part, this is necessary because the projector is likely to be a bit on the noisy side. On the upside, however, up-time movies are unusual and should have a bit of novelty value.
So, if you"re going to run a movie house in a town or take one on the road, you"re talking a fairly significant investment. Quite significant, really.
This means that you, who wishes to have a movie house, have to spend the money to start a business. And, it"s totally up to someone else whether you"re going to have product-movies-to sell.
This is not the same as cloth merchant dealing with a weaver to get his product. There are a lot of weavers to deal with. It"s an established art. Unless the movie industry is very well funded, then the movie house proprietor is looking at one-or at most a few-guys with cameras. Perhaps half a dozen movies a year, if he"s lucky. That"s not enough to turn a profit. Not even for a part time side business.
This can get to be a vicious circle. Even if the movie making company funds the start of the movie house, how much willingness will the owner of the movie house have to limit himself to only those movies made by "his" movie company? This att.i.tude, in turn, takes away much of the motive for a movie maker to back a movie house.
In addition to the problems above, there"s another difficulty. This is the problem of standardization.
As an ill.u.s.tration, suppose you"re in a war. Your enemy"s primary weapon is of a certain caliber. You make your guns fire a slightly larger caliber than the enemy guns. That means you can use their ammunition, but the enemy can"t use yours.
Similarly, suppose you are in compet.i.tion with Smith Record Player Co. Smith makes records to play at 70 RPM. The Smith Record players only play at that speed. Opportunity here. You can make your record player to play records at 70 RPM and at 80 RPM. As well, you make your records play at 80 RPM, which makes your record players a much better buy, since it can play the Smith records as well as your own.
The same thing is true of movies and projectors, in terms of film size and frames per second. Most of these little differences are factors that either don"t really matter, or are judgment calls. Perhaps the slightly better sound quality you get at a higher RPM is worth the slightly less time the recording will last . . . or perhaps not.
Most of theses tricks were used by one company or group of companies or another in the evolution of the media industry. Sometimes, they were used to gain access to the other fellow"s inventory while denying access to him. At other times, these differences were designed to lock subsidiary businesses like movie houses into using only one product.
Such tactics worked, sometimes. Sometimes they didn"t, but this kind of tactic almost always resulted in delay and extra cost. For instance, the guy who was first credited with putting sound on film stole the idea from another guy. In turn, the guy who stole the idea was run out of business before the process he developed went into use. Delay for sound in movies? Approximately five years.
This dog in the manger att.i.tude was a result of the simple fact that it is really easy to ride to success on the other fellows coattails. In this particular race, the last guy across the finish line has most of the advantages.
Also, there is a bleeeping lot of money to be made. A lot of money. Ah. Did we mention that there was a %^&&^%%% ((&^**%& lot of money to be made in the entertainment industry?
Well, there is. The sort of money that can make people a bit crazy.
In addition to money, there is power. The power to decide which songs and stories are made readily available to thousands of people would be in the hands of the major investor.
Music, sung or performed by the best entertainers in the world, is a tremendous influence over what people are going to believe. Which brings us to the government . . .
In modern terms; do you show "Queer Eye for the Straight Guy" or avoid mentioning h.o.m.os.e.xuality?
In 1632 terms, things will be said a bit differently, probably. The question will be: do you portray a Catholic priest as a hero, as in The Bells of Saint Mary"s, or do you insist that the script be rewritten to make him a Lutheran pastor? Do you make the movie with the Committee of Correspondence character as the hero and the n.o.ble as the villain or do you portray the CoC guy as a fanatic and show the n.o.ble as, well . . . n.o.ble?
The government of the USE is not going to want that sort of power in the hands of any small group or individual. And it certainly will not want that kind of power in the hands of investors from some other nation.
We tend to doubt that Mike Stearns would want this kind of power in his hands, either. Especially since he already has stated that he is unlikely to win the next election. Which is probably almost certainly going to mean that anything that even looks like a media trust is going to get very little sympathy from the government. In fact, up-time ant.i.trust laws will probably be invoked. That could mean forced sale at a loss and or fines.
Which means, if you"re the primary investor and you"re looking for government help in blocking the coattail riders that flock after you, you can just forget it. It just isn"t going to happen.
Ultimately, if you"re thinking of investing a medium size fortune-which is what it"s going to take-in the media business, you have a very big problem ahead of you.
How do you deal with the guys that are coming along behind you? They"re getting rich off your investment and putting you out of business while they do it.
Mostly, the answer is: you don"t have an option. You may be able to stay in business, but a whole bunch of people are going to get rich off your dime. That fact will probably make your very expensive start-up quite a bit less profitable, at least in the short run.
Then again, there"s the long run to consider. Fine. Johan Schmidt, or half a dozen others are making records that will play on their player as well as your own. What"s the answer? Make your player play any record. The Schmdits find a really good recording star? Find your own, or hire her away from Schmidt.
By this time, she"s got an agent to do the negotiating for her.
These things may or may not be practical. In any case, they are going to cost a lot of money and take time. Both are things that as an investor or manager of a media company you would rather avoid. You have a market by 1633. The VOA has provided you with at least half a million customers who want what you have to sell and will pay for it if you can provide it at anything like a reasonable price. You have, at least potentially, product. Everything from the 1632 version of Bob Viela"s This Old House to its version of Brittany Spears. You have the technology by 1634. The pieces are in place to make records and record players, movies and projectors. Everyone else has that same opportunity. And, in this case, most of your investment will benefit the guy behind you almost as much as it does you. Even if he isn"t trying to cheat, it just makes sense for him to make his record player play your records or his records play on your record player. If you"re looking at this as an investment, your best course is to stand back and let someone else spend the money to get there first. Then, you can spend a great deal less on initial investment, step up and take your share of the profits. Besides, if you do that, you can spend the money you didn"t spend trying to do it all by underselling him in one area and gaining market share.
In conclusion, to counteract the "last is best" effect is going to take a lot of money. Not a medium fortune. A couple of really, really big fortunes. To avoid the media trust that it"s a safe bet the government will not allow, you either can"t control the various companies involved or your control of them must be very limited. Avoid a controlling interest like the plague. Seek preferred non-voting stock. You can, as a condition of investment, probably get away with agreements about format. Don"t try for any control over content. The court will throw out the whole contract.
The start up money is there. By 1633 both Grantville and Magdeburg are competing withAmsterdam and Venice as financial and industrial centers. There are both businesses and individuals with the resources to do it. There will be movie studios, plural. Record producers, plural. Record player manufactures, plural. Movie houses, plural. Very plural. Both the traveling show sort that visit a village for a day or two and go on to the next and the in-place sort that have a movie projector and rent films.
How will they come about? Messily. Even if a consortium of some sort arranges an agreement on formats, the only people who will be obligated by it are those that signed on the dotted line and took the investment money. Even they will not necessarily follow the agreement if it starts costing them money.
This information is available to the up-timers and down-timers who have access to Grantville and its books. It isn"t available all in one place or one article, true. But a careful study of the media and its history by use of the modern encyclopedias and other books will find information on the subject. Other books, perhaps biographies of stars like Clark Gable and Katherine Hepburn, may mention aspects of the media in pa.s.sing. Carefully piecing these articles and pa.s.sing comments together will tell the avid student or potential investor all he needs to know to see the pitfalls and advantages.
Agreements will be reached about format for records and film. Record players and film projectors will be designed with the possibility of upgrades in mind. Sometimes. Companies will start making their particular brand of record player and go broke. Which will, of course, leave the record producer for records of that type in the lurch. It will happen faster this time, because one of the obvious lessons that even a fairly slight perusal of the history of media brings is the desperate need for content. Nothing can really prevent it. The stars are going to shine. Because-as much as people need food and shelter-they want entertainment just as much. Or more.
Note: This essay describes the result of one individual"s research into the possible routes and expansion of railroad in Germany after the Ring of Fire. This plan should be regarded as a proposal, and not as an edict. Canon in the 1632 series is established by stories. As you write your stories, you may choose to use this plan, or not. It is up to the author.
- The Editorial Board
Railroading In Germany
By Carsten Edelberger
"The railroads are about to make a big comeback in the world."
Eric Flint, 1632.
Introduction.
The railroads will be the steel backbone of the inter-modal rail/water transportation system of the United States of Europe (USE). The first rail line will provide a link for Grantville into the existingroad-and-river transportation network and to the capitol in Magdeburg. The tracks will then spread across the State of Thuringia-Franconia (SoTF), more tightly connecting its important towns and providing them with easier access to the rivers of Elbe, Weser and Main.
Railroads, together with improvements of other infrastructure, will create a system capable of real ma.s.s transportation. They will reduce transportation times from weeks or months to days, and will vastly improve the reliability of the transportation system. At the same time, they will drive the cost of transport down, thus allowing vendors to produce for a greater market. Finally, railroads act as a cla.s.sical military "force multiplier," by improving the speed at which armies and their supplies can move.
We don"t have enough oil to fuel lots of cars with internal combustion engines. Granted, there are oil wells near Wietze, but it will take much time and effort to develop them. In the first few years, only some 150-200 barrels a day are expected, and that"s definitely not going to impress a Texas oil tyc.o.o.n.
Moreover, even if we had the fuel, we would still need to upgrade the highways. In most parts of the USE, the roads, outside the immediate vicinity of towns and cities, are unfit for horse-drawn carts, let alone motor traffic.
Rivers might be an alternative for transport in many parts of Europe, but not for Grantville. The nearest river is the Saale, which runs north, past Saalfeld, Rudolstadt, Jena, Naumburg, and Halle, and empties into the Elbe (the junction is 18 miles upstream of Magdeburg, the USE capitol). Unfortunately, the Saale cannot meet our rising demands for transport. Upriver from Naumburg, transport with barges is almost impossible because the Saale is small and shallow. It is a nice trout stream, not a navigable river.
Even rafting has to wait for snow melt for enough water. The Saale river can be improved to a certain degree, but the process would be laborious, costly and time-consuming. Going in any direction other than straight north with waterways from Grantville is absolutely impossible anyway.
Thus, railroad is not the best, but rather the only, solution to Grantville"s high volume transportation needs. The first rail line will provide a link for Grantville into the existing road-and-river transportation network, and in particular to Magdeburg. The tracks will then be spread across the SoTF, more tightly connecting its important towns and providing them with easier access to the rivers of Elbe, Weser and Main. Ultimately, the railroads will be the steel backbone of the entire USE.
Starting the railroad infrastructure will be the first really big infrastructure project outside the immediate scope of Grantville. As most up-timers with appropriate knowledge are committed elsewhere, the project will rely heavily on, and be run mostly by, down-timers.
It will not be in the top priority list but will be ranked perhaps just after the military, very high in the secondary list. That"s because we already have lots of most important projects to do. Projects like winning a war while retrofitting an army and simultaneously building our own army, navy and even our air force, just to name a few. But this project has great importance both in military and economic terms, so in the end it will get what"s needed.
The General Plan We should initially establish a railroad system comparable in capabilities to an 1870-vintage secondary railroad.
Our focus will be on transporting freight. Initially, we will make only a bit of additional money by transporting pa.s.sengers. Average people from this time rarely leave their village or town if not forced to do so by war or other urgent circ.u.mstances. And the ticket for a train ride will be very expensive at first.
So, at first the princ.i.p.al pa.s.sengers will be up-timers, novelty-seeking n.o.bility, very bold and rich businessmen and couriers.
There are two exceptions to this rule. First is transporting military units. But in most wars in whichtrains were used to transport soldiers, they were given only a modest increase in comfort in comparison to their horses. So, we too will consider them as freight, if a valuable and demanding one.
The second is public transport in urban areas. Industrialization tends to draw workers into the city; public transport becomes a tool to reduce the concentration of people. Commuting helps to keep prices in urban housing lower and allows for greater flexibility in working while maintaining a more stable private life.
So, when a railroad is already present, it should also be used to run cheap commuter trains, if possible. In major centers such as Grantville, Nurnberg and Magdeburg, tramlines which share the railroad track, either with the same gauge or in a double gauge track, might be established. If the big employers and the railroad company coordinate shift times and timetables properly, a few trains can transport a lot of people.
Grantville Starting Materials Railroad didn"t start from zero in Grantville. A rail line went into Grantville for servicing the power station. Also, some rolling stock and even a kind of a small car workshop came with us through the Ring of Fire. Regrettably, there was not a single engine in Grantville.
Later, some forty miles of two feet rail track and other equipment were salvaged out of old abandoned "dog hole" mines around Grantville. But it was put into good use by the establishment of the 141th Railway Battalion (See Ernest Lutz and John Zeek, "Elisabeth," Grantville Gazette, Volume 4).
Most of our precious heavy rails from normal gauge track is going to become armor for the ironclads of Adm. Simpson"s navy which is being built in Magdeburg, but we might be able to preserve at least some track for our railroading needs. We have to give up all double track, all unnecessary sidings and a lot of rails in the stations. Perhaps we can convince the Powers That Be to let us keep the switches intact, as switches are difficult to make and not so readily converted into armor. But we have to strip the whole system to a bare skeleton.
The overwhelming majority of all the stuff for the railroad will have to come from down-time. The use of up-time tools for building the high-tech items of the engines and perhaps the track is more effective in the end, anyway. Even with critical items we will rely on down-time manufacture as much as is technically and economically possible. These solutions might be less effective than up-timers are used to, but it"s more sustainable in a long term perspective.
Financing We expect that the railroads will be built and operated by corporations, that is, companies which raise at least some of their money by selling stock (ownership shares) to the public, and which offer the shareholders the legal protection of limited liability (that is, their potential losses are limited to their investment). The stocks will probably be sold primarily to governments (including those of towns and cities along the proposed route), wealthy merchants, and other companies (including the mutual fund, "Other People"s Money," Grantville Gazette, Volume 3). The railroad corporations can also borrow money, either by obtaining loans from bankers or by selling bond issues (these pay interest until they mature). Bonds, like stocks, will tend to be purchased by governments and the like.
Governments can also provide indirect financial a.s.sistance by granting tax immunities and other benefits.
The traditional animosities between rival cities could work to our advantage, as they will bid against each other to sway the railroad company to run the line to one and not the other. We have to bundle our resources with others. For example, every major railroad needs a telegraph system for managing the line.We will have to team up with a company like AT&L (See Dave Freer, "Lineman for the Country," Ring of Fire) for telegraphs. To cater to the needs of our pa.s.sengers we will license some peddlers to offer refreshments in trains and at the stations, as is done in India today.
We can improve the financial footing of our railroad by contracting, in advance, to carry mail for the USE, the SoTF, and so forth. Of course, we cannot safely enter into these contracts until we are sure that the facilities and personnel will be ready to meet these commitments, on schedule.
Route Planning We have to build the whole railroad on a very tight budget. So, structures which are costly and time-consuming to construct, such as bridges, tunnels and dams, have to be avoided whenever possible.
But lines should be designed with potential for growth in speed and better track in the future.
All turns on the main track should have a radius of 650 feet (200 meters) or more.
Branch lines to mines and factories should be considered only for later extensions. A company paying for its own branch is always welcome and will a get higher priority.
The stations will always be outside the walls of a town and be aligned in a way to skirt around the town if the existing track will be extended later.
Surveying We need one or more survey teams to find the best route for the railroad. The necessary methods and personnel have been already defined in Laura Runkle"s article "Mente et Malleo" (Grantville Gazette, Volume 2). It may be advantageous to add local Markscheider to the survey teams.
Markscheider"s job is to plan and survey the construction of shafts and tunnels in mining. They should be up to the challenge. Planning track lines for a mine is also common. In neighboring Saxony, the mining is actually in decline in 1632, so Markscheider should be available.
Acquiring Rights-of-Way For building a rail we need land in a very long small line and also unlimited access to it. The tracks will go straight through land belonging to hundreds of different owners and landlords. It will belong to n.o.bles, commoners, towns, abbeys and other ent.i.ties. Why should an owner sell you this particular piece of land or a right of way? What would be the price? We will need some really good land agents, who can acquire the land quickly before the locals realize that you are making major purchases and raise their prices.
The Legal Position of the Railroad Germany is a confusing patchwork of many different administrative ent.i.ties and special legal situations as well as local taxes and customs. If we start negotiating separate deals with every single landowner we are doomed from the start. For a clean approach, we need an imperial law providing the railroad with a general exemption from ALL old prerogatives, customs and taxes. A immunity from impoundment of railroad track and rolling stock will also be necessary. Issues of right of way, policing in trains and blockading of these tracks should be solved here, too. Eminent domain, allowing the government to take private property for public purposes, with compensation, but without the landowner having the right to refuse is unknown in the period. This law is a "Conditio sine qua non." Without this there will be no railroad. To get this law the USE will most certainly have to swap a lot of horses with all those very nice and very petty n.o.bles.
Railroad Standards So far we have discussed the "freedoms of the railroad." But the railroads will also have responsibilities. They will need to adhere to "Eisenbahn Normalien" (Railroad standards) both to ensure public safety, and also to avoid expenses (e.g., "gauge wars") that we can ill-afford. The standards will need to address gauge, track laying, ma.s.ses & dimensions of vehicles, coupling devices, signals, brakes, engines and a lot of subsystems. The standards might be developed through open system with public proposals from partic.i.p.ating engineers like the "Request for Comment" for defining the standards of the internet. We will certainly avoid several costly detours made in development in OTL. We will need to set standards early and avoid the blind alleys of the past.
Different rail companies will have to connect their tracks and be interchangeable in rolling stock from the beginning. As Jere Haygood says in "In the Navy," Ring of Fire: "we"re going to make d.a.m.ned sure that when we get around to building our railroads, "standard gauge" means just that-standard gauge. . .
. None of that business of every outfit building its own private set of rails to whatever gauge suited it."
Track Design The USE should introduce only three gauges. Standard gauge (Standardspur) 4 ft 8.5 in (1435mm) will be standard in this world, too. Narrow gauge (Schmalspur) 3ft 3in (990mm) will be for cheaper track on secondary branch lines. And then there will be Tactical gauge (Grubenspur) 2 ft (610 mm) for military tacrail, mining and temporary industrial purposes. Together, these should satisfy almost all needs for the foreseeable future.
The best compromise, balancing functionality against scarcity of resources, is to use steel rails weighing forty pounds per yard. The length of an individual rail will be sixty feet. But rail is only the most obvious part of a track. We must start by creating a foundation; grading the land to create a level track bed. This bed is typically elevated, and slopes down on both sides to allow drainage. On top of the bed we have six to nine inches of ballast (gravel). Then we need sleepers, which are the wood ties which are perpendicular to the actual rails. Sleepers will be 25 to 30 inches apart, and thus there are about 2,100-2,500 sleepers in a mile of track. The rail is spiked onto the sleepers; we need at least six spikes per sleeper.
So, for each mile of track we need about 140,800 pounds of rail, 2,100 sleepers (weighing over 100 lbs each), 12,600 spikes and 18,900 cubic feet of ballast.
For the sleeper, a treatment with either creosote or mercury compounds is necessary. Otherwise the sleeper will not last for long. Both substances are expensive, poisonous and difficult to acquire. The additional cost will be more than the price of the sleeper but will actually pay off because a treated sleeper will last about 25 years while an untreated sleeper will last only five years. Creosote is essentially coal tar or wood tar. Because we still don"t have enough industrial capacity in the chemical industry, we have to import wood tar from Sweden. Mercury is more difficult to obtain as it comes mainly from Spain or Tuscany.
Track Construction Building the track will be an incredibly laborious, costly and time-consuming task. While the bar-topped track from Grantville to Halle has acted as our test bed, the real railroad will have muchhigher demands in durability and reliability. Despite the track having been planned with regard to the work involved, there will be a lot of logging, gravel moving, grading and building little bridges. Most work will be done by hand.